Wisła Płock II0-2Puszcza Niepołomice

Wisła Płock II host Puszcza Niepołomice in a Polish Cup Round 64 tie, and the model makes a home win the most likely outcome at 96.4%. There are no prior meetings on record, and both teams arrive on a three-day turnaround. The projected score is 3-0.

Wisła Płock II have won three of their last five home matches, drawing one and losing one, averaging 2.4 goals scored and 1.4 conceded. Their recent overall form reads W-L-D-D-W, with a scoring average of 2.4 per game but a slightly higher concession rate of 2.0.

Puszcza Niepołomice have lost both of their away matches on record, failing to score in either while conceding two per game. Their recent overall form is W-L-L-W-L, averaging one goal scored and 1.2 conceded over the last five.

There are no prior meetings on record, so the head-to-head sample is empty and cannot be used to weigh this tie.

The home side's recent scoring at home (2.4 per game) contrasts with an away side that has scored zero in two away games. Puszcza's away sample is small, but the split strongly favors Wisła Płock II at their own ground.

Both sides face a short turnaround of three days after their last matches. The model sees Puszcza's lack of away goals as a key input, projecting a low likelihood of both teams scoring (13.6%). The absence of head-to-head history adds uncertainty, reflected in the medium confidence level.

The model gives Wisła Płock II a 96.4% win probability, with a 3.2% draw chance and 0.4% away win. It projects a 3-0 scoreline (expected goals 3.83 vs 0.15), and the most likely exact scores are 3-0, 4-0, and 2-0. Total goals are expected around four, with a 90.5% chance of two or more and a 55.5% chance of four or more. The home side wins by two-plus in 86.9% of simulations.

The data points to a dominant home win, with Puszcza's away scoring blanks and Wisła Płock II's home productivity underpinning the projection. The model's 3-0 projected scoreline and 0.15 expected goals for the visitors suggest a home clean sheet is probable. The small away sample and absence of prior meetings are the main caveats; anything other than a home win would contradict the model's central assumptions.