Kluczevia StargardvsPogoń Siedlce

This Polish Cup round-of-64 tie pits Kluczevia Stargard, unbeaten in their last five, against a Pogoń Siedlce side that has won three of five. The model installs the hosts as clear favorites, giving them a 75.9% win probability. No league table data is available for either side, so recent cup form and the model carry the analysis.

Kluczevia Stargard enter on a 2W-1D-0L run at home, averaging two scored and one conceded per game in that stretch. Over their last five matches overall they have scored 2.8 per game while conceding 1.4, with four wins in five. They last played August 28, giving them four days of rest before this tie.

Pogoń Siedlce's last five show three wins, one draw and one defeat, with 1.6 goals scored and 0.6 conceded per game. On the road, though, they are winless in their last two, averaging one scored and 1.5 conceded. Their most recent outing was August 29, meaning they have had only three days to recover.

There are no prior meetings between these two sides on record. With no head-to-head history, the model relies entirely on current form and the venue split.

Kluczevia's home numbers are strong: two wins and a draw in three, with a 66.7% win rate. Pogoń's away form is the opposite, with no wins in two road fixtures. That home/away gap is the widest single splits in the data and a central reason for the home favoritism.

Both sides are on short turnarounds, but Pogoń Siedlce has one fewer rest day, having played on August 29 versus August 28 for the hosts. Neither team's league table standing is available, and there is no head-to-head record to draw on. The model's medium confidence reflects some uncertainty around limited sample sizes, particularly Pogoń's two away games.

The Poisson model gives Kluczevia Stargard a 75.9% win probability, with a draw at 15.7% and an away win at 8.4%. The projected score is 2-0, and the most likely exact scorelines are 2-0, 1-0, and 3-0. The model projects about 3.05 total goals, with an 80.8% chance of at least two goals and a 43.8% chance both teams score. From the home side's perspective, a win by two or more has a 53% probability, while a one-goal home win sits at 22.9%.

The data points overwhelmingly to a Kluczevia Stargard victory, likely by a comfortable margin. Pogoń Siedlce's away struggles and the home side's strong recent form align with the model's 75.9% projection. A draw or an away win still accounts for 24.1% of outcomes in the model, so the hosts are not guaranteed, but every available signal points their way.