Siarka Tarnobrzeg3-2Zagłębie Lubin

This Polish Cup Round of 64 tie pits Siarka Tarnobrzeg against Zagłębie Lubin at Stadion Miejski w Tarnobrzegu. The model gives the home side a 41.1% win probability, just ahead of a 40.1% draw. With no league table data for either team, the analysis leans on recent form and the Poisson projection.

Siarka have won one and lost two of their last three home matches, averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded. Over the last five games overall, their record is WLLWL with 1.2 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per match. They enter on a three-day turnaround.

Zagłębie Lubin are winless in their last two away fixtures, with one draw and one defeat, scoring 0.5 and conceding 1.5 per game. Their recent five-match form is DDWLW, with an average of 1.0 scored and 0.8 conceded. They also have a three-day rest period.

No prior meetings between Siarka Tarnobrzeg and Zagłębie Lubin are on record. The absence of head-to-head data means this fixture is effectively a blank slate for comparison.

Siarka's home record from their last three matches shows a single win and a 33.3% win rate, while Zagłębie have yet to win in two away games. The home side averages 0.67 goals at home against Zagłębie's 0.5 away, with both teams conceding over a goal per game on these splits.

Both sides are on short rest, flagged as a congested schedule with three days between matches. The lack of historical meetings adds uncertainty, and the model's medium confidence underscores the evenness of the projection.

The model's most likely outcome is a Siarka win at 41.1%, with a draw close behind at 40.1%. The most likely exact scoreline is 0-0 (29.1%), reflecting expected goals of 0.8 for Siarka and 0.44 for Zagłębie. Total goals are projected at about 1.24, with a 35% chance of two or more and a 19.5% probability that both teams score. The margin distribution is tight, with a draw at 40.1%, a one-goal home win at 27.5%, and a one-goal away win at 15.1%.

The data points to a close, low-scoring encounter where Siarka's home edge is just enough to make them the model's pick. The draw is nearly as likely, and medium confidence means a result either way would not be surprising. The projections imply a tight margin, so a decisive multi-goal result would run counter to the model.