Korona Kielce II0-1Radomiak Radom

Polish Cup round of 64 brings Korona Kielce II and Radomiak Radom together, though neither side has league table data on record. The model gives the home side a 98.2% win probability, making them the overwhelming favorite. Recent form supports that edge, but the absence of a league record leaves context thin.

Korona Kielce II have won two of their last five matches (WWDLL), averaging 2.6 goals scored and 2.2 conceded. In their last three home games, they have one win, one draw, and one loss, scoring 2.33 and conceding 1.67 per game. They last played three days ago, a short turnaround.

Radomiak Radom have one win in their last five (WDLDL), with 0.8 goals scored and 2 conceded per match. On the road, their last two outings have ended in defeat, with an average of 0.5 goals scored and 4 conceded. They also played three days ago, making this a congested schedule for both sides.

No prior meetings between Korona Kielce II and Radomiak Radom are on record. The head-to-head therefore provides no guidance for this tie.

Korona Kielce II have conceded fewer at home (1.67 per game) than across their last five matches (2.2), while scoring slightly less (2.33 vs 2.6). Radomiak Radom are far worse away, scoring 0.5 and conceding 4 per game compared to their recent overall figures of 0.8 scored and 2 conceded.

Both sides are on a three-day rest, a short turnaround that could test squad depth. The lack of league table data for either team adds uncertainty to any comparison. Radomiak Radom's winless away record in their last two outings is a clear concern.

The model's most likely outcome is a Korona Kielce II win, at 98.2%, with a 1.4% draw and a 0.4% away win. The projected scoreline is 6-0, with 6-0 and 5-0 the joint-most probable exact scores at 10.9% each. Around 6.55 total goals are expected, with a 98.7% chance of at least two and an 87.2% chance of at least four. The model gives the home side a 94.3% chance of winning by two or more goals.

The data strongly favors a dominant home victory, with the model assigning a 98.2% probability to Korona Kielce II. Medium confidence is warranted given the small sample and the absence of league standings. If Radomiak Radom's away form were to improve sharply, the margin could tighten, but the projections are unambiguous.