Podhale Nowy TargvsPogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki

This Polish Cup round-of-64 tie brings together Podhale Nowy Targ and Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki, with no league table data available for either side and no prior meetings on record. The model gives the visitors a 74.5% win probability, projecting a 0-2 scoreline, while the hosts' recent form shows both goals scored and conceded at a high rate.

Podhale enter after a 3-day turnaround, with their last five matches reading W-D-L-L-W and an average of 2.0 goals scored and 2.4 conceded. At home across their last three games they have one win, one draw and one loss, averaging 1.67 goals scored and 2.0 conceded.

Pogoń Grodzisk have a 4-day rest and are unbeaten in their last five, going D-D-D-W-W while averaging 1.4 goals scored and 1.0 conceded. Their last three away games brought two wins and a draw, with an average of 2.0 goals scored and just 0.67 conceded.

No prior meetings between these two clubs are on record, so the head-to-head sample is empty. The model's assessment therefore rests entirely on each side's recent form rather than history.

Podhale's home numbers are close to their overall recent form: a slightly lower scoring average at home (1.67 vs 2.0) and a slightly lower conceded average (2.0 vs 2.4). Pogoń's away record stands out as stronger than their overall recent form, with a higher scoring average (2.0 vs 1.4) and a much lower conceded average (0.67 vs 1.0).

Both sides are playing on short rest, with the hosts on three days' rest and the visitors on four, flagged as congested. The away side's recent defensive solidity, especially on the road, is the clearest edge, while the hosts' recent matches have featured a high volume of goals at both ends.

The Poisson model rates Pogoń Grodzisk as clear favorites, giving them a 74.5% win probability with a projected score of 0-2. The most likely exact scorelines are 0-2, 1-2, and 0-3, and the model projects about 3.5 total goals, with 86.6% likelihood of at least two goals and 54.7% that each side scores. Winning-margin probabilities favor the visitors heavily: an away win by two or more stands at 53.3%, with a one-goal away win at 21.2%. Confidence is medium.

The data points to a Pogoń Grodzisk victory, most likely by a comfortable margin of two or more goals. The lack of head-to-head history and a medium confidence level caution that the actual margin could be tighter if the visitors' scoring rate on the road drops below their recent away average.