PaderbornvsFreiburg

This Bundesliga round two fixture pits Paderborn, who have a point from a goalless draw in their only league game so far, against Freiburg, whose 7th-place finish belongs to last season's table. The model overwhelmingly favours a draw, giving it a 75.8% probability, and projects a 0-0 scoreline. Both defensive records are strong, which underpins the low-scoring outlook.

Paderborn's league data shows one draw, with an attack ranked 17th of 18 and a defence ranked 4th. Over their last five matches in all competitions, they have four wins and a draw, averaging two goals scored and one conceded. At home, their last 20 matches show 12 wins, four draws, and four losses, a 60% win rate with an average of two goals scored per game.

Freiburg's league numbers come from the 2025-26 season, where they finished 7th with 47 points, scoring 51 and conceding 57. Their away record over the last 20 matches is 7 wins, three draws, and 10 losses, an average of 1.4 scored and 1.9 conceded per game. Their most recent five matches ended in wins, with an average of 3.8 goals scored.

There are no prior meetings on record between these sides, so the head-to-head offers no basis for prediction. With such a small sample, the model relies on season and venue data instead.

Paderborn's home form is solid: a 60% win rate across their last 20 home games with two goals scored per game on average. Freiburg, however, have lost 10 of their last 20 away games, conceding 1.9 per game. That contrast supports the view that Freiburg will struggle to score, but also that Paderborn may find it hard to break through.

Paderborn have had seven days of rest since their last match, one more than Freiburg's six. Their recent schedule has featured an average opponent rank of 12.5, slightly tougher than Freiburg's 15.0 across their last fixture. Freiburg's league table data is from the previous season, so comparisons should account for that.

The Poisson model rates the draw at 75.8%, with each side given a 12.1% chance of winning. It projects a 0-0 scoreline with 74.1% likelihood, and expects about 0.3 total goals in the match; the probability of two or more goals is just 3.7%. Winning margins are heavily weighted toward the draw, with one-goal margins for either side at 11.2% each and two-goal margins at less than 1% each. The model's confidence is high.

The data points firmly to a low-scoring draw, with 0-0 the most probable scoreline. A decisive result would require one attack to outperform recent defensive patterns, something the model considers unlikely. If the game opens up and either side scores, the structure of the projections changes sharply, but the base case is a stalemate.