StuttgartvsKöln

Round 2 of the Bundesliga season brings Stuttgart and Köln to the MHP Arena. With the 2026-27 table too thin to judge, last season's numbers carry the signal: Stuttgart finished 4th with 62 points, Köln 14th with 32. Stuttgart's 70% home win rate is the most striking split of the fixture.

Stuttgart's 2025-26 season produced 71 goals from 34 matches, the league's second-best attack, while their defence ranked 5th. Their last five matches read LWLWD, and the most recent was a narrow defeat on 28 August. At home across their last 20 matches they have won 14, drawn 4 and lost 2.

Köln's 2025-26 season was a struggle: 32 points, 49 goals scored and 63 conceded, with the league's 15th-ranked defence. Their recent five matches are far brighter — WWWDW — but that sample is short. Away from home over 20 matches they have won only 5, drawing 7 and losing 8.

Only two prior meetings are on record, both won by Stuttgart: 3-1 at home in February 2026 and 2-1 in Cologne in September 2025. Those matches produced seven goals, an average of 3.5 per game. The sample is thin, but the head-to-head is one-sided.

Stuttgart's home splits are dramatically stronger than their overall numbers: a 70% win rate at the MHP Arena versus 52.9% for the season. They concede 0.95 goals per game at home compared to 1.44 overall. Köln's away form is slightly worse than their overall record, with a 25% win rate and 1.75 goals conceded per away match.

Both sides arrive on similar rest: Stuttgart with seven days since their last match, Köln six. The opening opponents differed in quality, with Stuttgart facing the league's top-ranked side while Köln met the fifth-ranked. Köln's four wins in their last five matches are a note of caution, but that run does not outweigh a 30-point gap in last season's table.

The model gives Stuttgart a 72.8% win probability, against 13.7% for a draw and 13.5% for Köln, with high confidence. Expected goals are 3.29 to 1.46, producing a projected 3-1 scoreline and a combined total of roughly 4.75 goals. The probability of at least two goals is 95%, and the largest share of the margin distribution is a home win by two or more goals at 54.7%.

The data points strongly to a Stuttgart victory, with the model's high confidence and a home record that has seen them drop points only twice in their last 20 home matches. The main caveats are the tiny head-to-head sample and Köln's recent upturn, which could keep the winning margin tighter than the projection suggests.