Bayer LeverkusenvsUnion Berlin

Bayer Leverkusen host Union Berlin in round two of the Bundesliga, with last season's table showing the hosts finishing sixth with 59 points and the visitors 11th with 39. The Poisson model is high-confidence on a home win, giving Leverkusen a 71.3% probability and a projected 2-1 scoreline.

Leverkusen averaged two goals per game last season, scoring 68 in 34 matches while conceding 47. Their last five matches have produced 2.2 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per game, with a recent run of L-W-W-L-W.

Union Berlin averaged 1.29 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game in the previous season. On the road they won just 7 of their last 20 away matches, and their recent five-match form shows 2.8 goals scored and 2.6 conceded per game.

In four head-to-head meetings on record, Leverkusen have two wins, one draw and one loss, outscoring Union 4-2. The most recent meeting ended 1-0 to Union, while Leverkusen won the prior home meeting 2-0. Three of the four meetings finished with two or fewer total goals.

At home last season, Leverkusen won 11 of 20, averaging 2.3 scored and 0.95 conceded per game. Union, meanwhile, lost 11 of their last 20 away matches, averaging 1.25 scored and 1.85 conceded.

Both sides enter with seven days of rest since their last matches. Union's most recent fixture came against an opponent with an average rank of 8. Since the current season table is too small to be meaningful, these numbers draw on the 2025-26 season.

The model projects a 2-1 Leverkusen win, with expected goals of 2.91 to 1.25. It assigns a 92% probability to at least two total goals and a 67.5% chance that each side scores at least once. The winning-margin distribution gives Leverkusen a 51.6% chance of winning by two or more, and the most probable exact scorelines are 2-1, 3-1 and 2-0.

The data points to a Leverkusen victory, supported by their home strength and Union's away vulnerability. For that to be overturned, Union would need to improve on an away record that has produced just seven wins in twenty matches.