HoffenheimvsBorussia Dortmund

This is the second round of the 2026-27 Bundesliga season, though all table data comes from the 2025-26 campaign. Both sides last played on August 29 with seven days of rest. The model makes Borussia Dortmund clear favorites at 51.3% win probability, against 28.4% for Hoffenheim and 20.4% for a draw. Last season the sides finished 12 points apart, Dortmund second, Hoffenheim fifth.

Hoffenheim's 2025-26 season ended fifth with 61 points from 34 games, 65 goals scored and 52 conceded. Their table form across the final five rounds read LWDWW. At home in their last 20 matches they won 12, drew 2 and lost 6, a 60% win rate, averaging 2.05 scored and 1.3 conceded. Their last five overall averaged 2.4 scored and 1.4 conceded.

Dortmund finished second last season with 73 points, the league's best defensive record at 34 conceded and third-best attack with 70 goals. Their away form was weaker: 9 wins, 4 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 away matches, a 45% win rate, with 1.5 scored and 1.4 conceded per game. Their last five overall produced 1.2 scored and 1.0 conceded, with a WLDWL run.

Four recorded meetings: Dortmund hold the edge with 2 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss, outscoring Hoffenheim 7-5. The average total is three goals per meeting, though two of the four had two or fewer. The most recent, in April 2026, saw Hoffenheim win 2-1 at home.

Hoffenheim's home win rate is 60% versus 52.9% overall; Dortmund's away rate drops to 45% from 64.7% overall. Despite that split, the model still gives Dortmund the edge, implying their overall superiority outweighs the venue effect.

Both teams had seven days of rest. Dortmund's recent fixtures averaged an opponent ranked 7th across two games, while Hoffenheim's single recent fixture averaged a 14th-ranked opponent, a less demanding schedule. Since the table data is from the previous season, these projections carry the usual uncertainty of a new campaign.

The model has high confidence. It makes Dortmund the most likely winner at 51.3% and projects a 1-2 scoreline from expected values of 1.63 and 2.22. Total goals are expected around 3.84, with a 71.6% chance each side scores and a 53.5% chance of four or more. The largest margin bucket is an away win by two or more at 31%, followed by away by one at 20.3% and a draw at 20.4%.

The data points to a Dortmund win, most likely by two or more. Hoffenheim's strong home record is the main counterweight, and last season's table is no guarantee of this season's form. If the home edge holds more strongly than the model weights it, a draw or narrow home win is the more plausible alternative.