NicevsStrasbourg

Nice and Strasbourg meet at the Allianz Riviera in round six of Ligue 1, with the current-season table still too small a sample to read; the figures below come from 2025-26. That season Strasbourg finished eighth on 53 points, 21 clear of Nice in 16th. The Poisson model makes Strasbourg a 56.6% favourite.

Nice's 2025-26 campaign ended with 32 points from 34 games, 37 goals scored and 60 conceded — the 13th-ranked attack and 17th-ranked defence in the division. Their last five matches produced a W-D-L-D-L sequence at 0.6 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game. They have not played since 20 September, a 21-day gap.

Strasbourg's eighth place came with a positive goal difference (58 scored, 47 conceded) and top-eight rankings at both ends of the pitch. Their recent five read L-D-W-W-L, averaging two goals scored and two conceded. Away from home the picture is softer: five wins from their last 20 on the road, with 1.9 goals conceded per away game against 1.38 overall.

Four meetings are on record and they are split: each side has one win, with two draws. Strasbourg lead the goal count 7-6, and the four matches produced 13 goals, an average of 3.25 per meeting; only one of the four stayed at two goals or fewer. The most recent, in April 2026, finished Strasbourg 3-1 Nice. Four matches is a thin sample to lean on.

Nice's home record is markedly better than their overall numbers: six wins, ten draws and four losses in their last 20 at home, a 30% win rate, with 1.3 scored and 1.45 conceded per game. Strasbourg's away split runs the other way — a 25% win rate and 1.9 conceded per away game, well above their 1.38 overall.

Both sides arrive off extended breaks, 21 days for Nice and 22 for Strasbourg. Strasbourg's recent opposition has been the tougher of the two: an average opponent rank of 6.3 across four fixtures, against 9.5 for Nice. Because the only full-season table available is from 2025-26, projections for this fixture carry more uncertainty than a mid-season one would.

The model gives Strasbourg 56.6%, Nice 22.7% and the draw 20.8%, at high confidence. It projects a 1-2 scoreline from expected values of 1.28 and 2.12, with 1-2, 1-1 and 0-2 the three likeliest exact scorelines. Roughly 3.4 goals are expected in total; the model puts a 66% chance on three or more and 63.5% on each side scoring at least once. Away wins by two or more (34.4%) outweigh narrow away wins (22.1%).

The data points one way: Strasbourg have the better table position, the better goal difference, the stronger scoring rate and a 56.6% model probability. The counterweights are Nice's home splits, which sit well above their overall record, and a four-match head-to-head that is level. A draw or a narrow Nice win is what would make this read look wrong.