BrestvsAngers

Brest hosts Angers for the 2026-27 French Ligue 1 sixth round. Season statistics are based on the 2025-26 campaign. Brest are expected to edge the match despite a very low projected total.

Based on last season, Brest rank 12th with 39 points from 34 games, averaging 1.26 goals for and 1.62 against. Their home record is stronger, averaging 1.55 scored and 1.4 conceded over the last 20 matches. The team has a four-match winless streak in recent form (LLWDD), but returns after a 20-day break.

Angers are projected to finish the 2025-26 season 13th with 36 points from 34 games, averaging 0.85 goals for and 1.41 against. Their attack is the league's lowest-ranked. Their away record is a clear weakness, averaging 0.7 scored and 1.55 conceded over 20 games. They return from a 21-day layoff with mixed recent results (WDLWL).

The teams have met four times since 2025. The head-to-head is extremely low-scoring, with exactly two goals or fewer in all four games. Brest hold a 2-1 record in those meetings, scoring 5 goals to Angers' 3.

Brest's home stats from the last 20 league games show a 35% win rate, contrasting with a 20% win rate away for Angers over the same span. Angers have scored just 0.7 goals per away game in that sample.

This fixture relies on limited sample sizes. The available data comes from the 2025-26 season, and the current season is still in its early rounds. Angers' defense is an area of concern based on season-long numbers.

A high-confidence Poisson model gives Brest a 49.9% win probability and a projected 1-0 scoreline. The model forecasts an aggregate of 2.48 goals, with a 70.9% chance of two or more goals being scored. The winning-margin distribution is tight, with the home side winning by one or by two or more having similar probabilities (24.5% and 25.4%).

The model projects a narrow, low-scoring victory for Brest, with the primary variables being Angers' low attacking output and Brest's superior home scoring rate. A draw (25.9%) or a one-goal Angers win (15.7%) are the next most probable outcomes.