LillevsLe Havre

This fixture pits the third-placed Lille side against Le Havre, who sit 14th. The model assigns a 60.4% probability to a Lille victory with a most likely scoreline of 1-0. Lille have a strong defensive profile, conceding an average of 1.09 goals per game across the previous season.

Lille finished the 2025-26 season in third place, recording 18 wins, 7 draws, and 9 losses. Their home form over the last 20 league games was 9 wins, 6 draws, and 5 losses, with an average of 1.5 goals scored and 1.1 conceded per game. Their most recent form is LWLDD.

Le Havre earned 35 points from 34 games in 2025-26, finishing 14th. They are winless in their last 10 league games, a stretch that includes a 3-1 loss to Lille in their most recent meeting. On the road over their last 20 matches, they have won 3 and lost 10.

Four meetings are on record between these teams. Lille hold a 2-1-1 record, having won the most recent encounter 1-0. The average goal tally across these meetings is 2.25, with two of the four resulting in 2 or fewer total goals.

Comparing home and away splits, Lille scored 1.5 goals and conceded 1.1 per home game in their last 20 outings. Le Havre, conversely, scored just 0.85 goals and conceded 1.5 per away game over the same period.

Lille's strength in defense makes them a steady candidate for a low-scoring result. Le Havre's recent form has been poor, and their attack is the least effective in the league at an average of 0.94 goals per game. The model projects a low-scoring match, with the chance of three or more combined goals sitting at 43.1%.

Based on the Poisson model, there is a 69.2% chance of two or more goals being scored, but a 56.8% chance of fewer than three. The model predicts a total of approximately 2.4 goals for the match. A Lille win is the most probable outcome at 60.4%, with the individual scorelines of 1-0 and 2-0 carrying a 15.2% and 12.8% probability respectively.

The data points toward a decisive advantage for Lille. Their strong home record, superior offensive numbers, and the most likely projected scoreline of 1-0 support a victory. The model's high confidence makes this a robust projection, provided Le Havre's recent trend of losses continues.