LorientvsParis FC

The fixture pits Lorient, who are tenth in the 2025-26 table, against Paris FC in eleventh place. Both sides sit on 44 points, with identical records of 11 wins, 11 draws, and 12 losses.

Lorient are unbeaten in their last six home league games, with five of those ending as draws. Their recent home form shows a 45% win rate, averaging 1.95 goals scored and 1.5 conceded per match.

Paris FC have a 25% win rate in their last 20 away league games, scoring an average of 1.2 goals per outing while conceding 1.4. They enter this match on a four-game unbeaten run.

In four head-to-head meetings, the teams have split the wins, with one draw. A total of 11 goals were scored across those fixtures, averaging 2.75 per game, and three of the four results were decided by one or two goals.

Lorient's home defence is the stronger of the two sides, allowing 1.5 goals per game. Their opponents concede 1.47 goals per game on average but have a lower scoring rate of 1.38 per match.

Both teams are coming off a 21-day break, giving them an even schedule strength of 9.3 and 8.3 respectively. Paris FC's defensive record in the last five games is superior, conceding just 0.6 goals per game.

The model projects a 45% probability of a home win, a 23.1% draw, and a 31.9% probability for an away victory. The most likely individual scoreline is 1-1 with a 10.3% probability, followed by 2-1 and 1-2. The model expects 3.22 combined goals and gives an 83.2% probability of at least two goals being scored.

Lorient are the statistically favoured side at home, with their unbeaten run and home advantage. However, the head-to-head suggests a tight contest, and the away side's recent defensive resilience provides a strong counter-narrative.