MonacovsToulouse

Monaco host Toulouse at the Stade Louis II on 10 October 2026. Using 2025–26 season data, Monaco sit seventh and Toulouse tenth. The model projects Monaco as a narrow favourite (49.3% win probability) with a likely scoreline of 2-1 (8.8% exact probability).

Monaco averaged 1.76 goals scored and 1.59 conceded in the 2025–26 season, with a 55% home win rate over their last 20 league matches at Stade Louis II (11W 3D 6L). Their recent five-match form was WDWWW (2.2 scored, 0.8 conceded on average).

Toulouse averaged 1.42 scored and 1.39 conceded in the 2025–26 season, with a 35% away win rate over the last 20 league matches (7W 5D 8L). Their last five games produced 1.4 scored and 1.6 conceded per match on average (WDDDL).

Four meetings are on record. Monaco won two and drew two; Toulouse won none. Combined goals total 9 (average 2.25 per game). Three of four meetings featured two or fewer total goals.

Monaco's home split (last 20) shows 1.65 scored and 1.15 conceded per game, slightly lower than their league average. Toulouse's away split (last 20) shows 1.45 scored and 1.4 conceded per game, closely matching their league average.

Monaco have had 22 days since their last match; Toulouse had 21 days. Both fixtures came late in September. The schedule strength for each side over their previous four/five matches was average (opponent ranks 4 and 8.4 respectively).

The model projects 3.67 combined goals. The probability of two or more goals is 88.1%, and each side scoring at least once is 69.7%. The projected score (2.08 / 1.59) aligns with the most likely exact scorelines of 2-1 (8.8%) and 1-1 (8.4%). The home win probability (49.3%) is the highest among all outcomes.

Monaco have the stronger recent home record and a favourable head-to-head history. The model's projections support a close contest with a slight edge to the hosts. The result would most easily be overturned by a draw (21.1% probability) or an away win (29.6%).