LyonvsLe Havre

Round 2 of Ligue 1 brings Lyon and Le Havre to the Groupama Stadium. All table figures here are from 2025-26, as the new season has too few games for meaningful standings. The one number that matters most: the model gives Lyon a 59.7% win probability, making a home win the most likely outcome.

Lyon finished fourth last season with 60 points, averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game. Their last five matches read WDWLL, capped by a win in their season opener. Over their last 20 home matches, they have won 14, drawn once, and lost five, scoring 1.8 and conceding 1.0 per game.

Le Havre were 14th last season with 35 points, scoring 0.94 and conceding 1.29 per game. Their recent five results are LWLLD, including a loss last weekend. In their last 20 away matches, they have three wins, six draws, and eleven defeats, with 0.75 goals scored and 1.5 conceded per game.

Lyon have not lost in four recorded meetings, winning three and drawing one. They have outscored Le Havre 9-2 in those games, though two of the four finished with two or fewer total goals. The most recent meeting, in March 2026, ended 0-0.

Lyon's home win rate of 70% over their last 20 matches is well above their overall 52.9% win rate. Le Havre's away win rate of 15% is below their overall 20.6%. The venue split therefore sharpens the gap between the sides.

Both teams have had similar rest, with Lyon last playing on 22 August and Le Havre on 23 August. Lyon faced an opponent ranked 10th in their opener, while Le Havre played one ranked 7th, though one match is too small a sample to draw conclusions. Historical results and last season's table both favor the home side.

The model is confident, giving Lyon a 59.7% chance of winning, with a draw at 23.6% and Le Havre at 16.8%. It projects a 1-0 scoreline, with expected goals of 1.71 to 0.78. It expects about 2.5 total goals, with a 71.2% chance of at least two goals and a 44.4% chance both teams score; a Lyon win by two or more (33.7%) is more likely than a one-goal margin (26%).

The evidence points to a Lyon win: a strong home record, a weak away side, a favorable head-to-head, and a model that gives them a clear edge. The most likely outcome, per the model, is a home victory with a projected 1-0 margin. The main caveat is that all of these numbers are from last season; if current form diverges sharply from 2025-26, the gap could close.