Eintracht FrankfurtvsAugsburg

This opening round of the 2026-27 Bundesliga season pits two teams with similar last-season records against each other. Frankfurt earned 44 points from 34 games, finishing eighth, while Augsburg took 43 points from the same number of matches, placing ninth. The 58% win probability for the home side, combined with the 2-1 scoreline projection, signals a competitive start to the campaign.

Frankfurt struggled defensively last season, conceding 1.91 goals per game and ranking 16th for goals allowed. Their home record was also below league average, averaging 1.4 goals scored and 1.8 conceded across their last 20 league games. They come into this fixture on eight days of rest following a 2-1 win against Greuther Fürth.

Augsburg finished slightly lower than Frankfurt in the standings, though their goal difference was worse at -16. They averaged 1.79 goals conceded per game, placing 14th in that metric. Away from home, their defensive numbers were notably closer to their overall average, conceding 1.85 goals per game over their last 20 road fixtures. Their last match ended in a 4-0 win, improving their recent form significantly.

Augsburg have never beaten Frankfurt in their four recorded meetings, taking only one point from the last four encounters. Three of those matches featured two or fewer total goals. In their most recent matchup, a 1-1 draw at Augsburg's home ground, each side scored once. The overall head-to-head goal average is 1.75 per meeting.

Comparing last season's home and away splits highlights a gap in attacking output. Frankfurt's home games averaged 1.4 goals for, compared to 2.16 for away from home. Conversely, Augsburg's road tally was 1.85 goals for, versus 1.19 for at home. This difference points to a more productive attacking environment for Augsburg when they leave their home stadium.

While only one match has been played this season for both teams, their recent results suggest a stable starting point. Both sides have a healthy gap of six to seven days since their season openers. Augsburg's recent form (WWLWW) contrasts with Frankfurt's (DWLWW), though small samples can fluctuate. No promoted-side adjustments or injury news is available in the data provided.

The model projects the highest probability for a 2-1 result for Frankfurt, with a 7.3% chance of that exact score. The combined goal projection is around 4.5 goals, with a high 93.9% probability of at least two goals being scored in total. The winning-margin distribution is relatively even, with a 38.7% chance of Frankfurt winning by two or more goals and an 11.6% chance of the same margin for Augsburg.

Given the 58% win probability, the data leans toward a Frankfurt victory, though the chance of a draw is notable. The projected margin is projected to be 0.9 goals on average, suggesting the match will likely be close. The 77.6% probability that both teams will score a goal further reinforces this expectation of a low-scoring but competitive game.