AuxerrevsAngers

This Ligue 1 round-two fixture pits Auxerre against Angers at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps. All table figures below are from the 2025-2026 season, since the current campaign has yet to produce meaningful form. The model makes Auxerre the most likely winner at 46.2%, with a draw at 30.1% and an Angers win at 23.7%.

Auxerre finished 15th last season with 8 wins, 10 draws and 16 losses, scoring 34 and conceding 44. Their last five league results of that campaign were WWWLD, and their recent overall form (last five matches) is LWDDW, with an average of 1.4 goals both scored and conceded per game. At home over their last 20, they won six, drew six and lost eight.

Angers placed 13th in 2025-2026 with 9 wins, 9 draws and 16 losses, scoring 29 and conceding 48. Their recent overall form is LWWLW, and they averaged 2 goals scored and 1.8 conceded across those five outings. Away from home in their last 20 matches, they won four, drew four and lost twelve, conceding 1.6 goals per game on average.

The four recorded meetings are split exactly evenly: Auxerre have two wins and Angers two wins, with no draws. Total goals in the head-to-head stand at nine, an average of 2.25 per match, and three of the four matches produced two or fewer goals. Auxerre won the most recent meeting 3-1, while Angers took the two games before that, and Auxerre edged the 2024 encounter 1-0.

Auxerre's home record over their last 20 matches is 6 wins, 6 draws and 8 losses, with a balanced 1.05 goals scored and conceded per game. Angers' away form is worse: 4 wins, 4 draws and 12 losses, scoring just 0.65 per game and conceding 1.6. These splits suggest Auxerre are stronger at home relative to their overall performance, while Angers' road struggles are pronounced.

Auxerre have had seven days' rest since their last match, Angers six, so neither side faces a short turnaround. Auxerre's two recent fixtures came against strong opposition (average opponent rank 2.5), while Angers' three had an average rank of 7.7, indicating a less demanding schedule. With only one league round played, the early-season samples carry more uncertainty than usual.

The Poisson model projects a 1-0 Auxerre win, with expected goals of 1.2 to 0.77. Confidence is high. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-0 at 16.7%, followed by 0-0 and 1-1. Total goals are projected at about 1.97, with a 58.7% chance of two or more goals and a 37.6% chance both sides score. The margin distribution shows the draw as the largest single slice at 30.1%, while an Auxerre win by one is 25.7%; combined, home-win paths sum to 46.2%.

The data points to a narrow home win, given Auxerre's home record, Angers' poor away form, and a head-to-head that is even but with the most recent result in Auxerre's favour. The draw remains a substantial possibility, and the margin distribution clusters around a single-goal difference. This projection relies heavily on last season's figures; a different current-season trajectory for either side would shift the picture.