St MirrenvsCeltic

This Scottish Premiership fixture sees St Mirren host Celtic at St Mirren Park, with both sides' figures drawn from the 2025-26 season as the current table is too sparse to read. The model gives Celtic a 63.3% win probability, making the visitors strong favourites. St Mirren finished 10th last season, Celtic 3rd.

St Mirren ended 2025-26 in 10th place with 30 points from 33 games, scoring 0.82 and conceding 1.45 per match. Their last five results read D-L-W-W-W, yielding three wins and an average of 1.6 goals scored and conceded. Their league form reads W-D-D-W-L.

Celtic were third last season with 67 points, averaging 1.79 goals scored and 1.06 conceded. Over their last five matches they have W-L-W-W-W, scoring three per game while conceding 1.4. Their attack ranked second of 12 in the league from last season.

The three meetings on record have all ended 1-0 to Celtic, home or away. St Mirren have not scored in any of them. The sample is small, but the pattern is unambiguous.

St Mirren's last 20 home games show a 35% win rate with 0.75 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game. Celtic's last 20 away games show a 60% win rate, scoring 1.9 and conceding 1.6. The away side's attacking numbers hold up better on the road than the hosts' do at home.

St Mirren have faced a tougher recent schedule, with their last three opponents averaging rank 4, versus rank 8 for Celtic. Both sides have had six or seven days of rest. Last season's data is the only reliable basis for projection given the early season stage.

The Poisson model assigns Celtic a 63.3% win probability, with a draw at 22.1% and St Mirren at 14.6%, and flags the away win as the most likely outcome. The projected score is 0-1, with 0-1, 0-2 and 1-1 the most likely exact scorelines. The model expects 2.57 total goals, a 72.6% chance of at least two goals, and a 43.9% chance both teams score. On margins, an away win by two or more leads at 37.4%, followed by a one-goal away win at 25.9%.

The data points strongly to a Celtic win, with a dominant head-to-head record, superior season-long numbers, and a model confidence rating of high. St Mirren's home record is modest, and the away win probability above 60% leaves little room for an upset. A different outcome would most likely require Celtic's recent scoring form to drop off against a side that has held them to one goal in every prior meeting.