KilmarnockvsSt Mirren

This is an early-season Premiership fixture between two sides with contrasting recent form. Kilmarnock have won three of the four head-to-head meetings on record, and the model gives them a 57.3% win probability. Both teams are on a congested schedule, with Kilmarnock on four days' rest and St Mirren on three.

Over their last 20 home matches at Rugby Park, Kilmarnock have eight wins, two draws, and ten losses, scoring 1.5 and conceding 1.85 per game. Their recent form is inconsistent, with two wins and three losses across the last five games, averaging 2.2 scored and 3.2 conceded.

St Mirren's away record over their last 20 matches is four wins, four draws, and twelve losses, with a 1.1 scored and 1.85 conceded average. Their recent form is three wins, one draw, and one loss in the last five, with a balanced 1.6 scored and 1.6 conceded per game.

Across four recorded meetings, Kilmarnock are unbeaten, with three wins and one draw, outscoring St Mirren 9-3. Two of those games produced two or fewer total goals, but the overall average is three per meeting.

Kilmarnock's home win rate is 40%, but they have lost half of their last 20 home games. St Mirren's away win rate is just 20%, with 12 losses in 20. Despite the home side's mixed record, the model still assigns them the higher win probability.

Both teams have had a short turnaround, with Kilmarnock playing four days ago and St Mirren three days ago. League-table data is unavailable for either side, so recent form and head-to-head results carry the analysis. St Mirren have three wins in their last five, while Kilmarnock have two, yet the model edge is with the home side.

The model is medium-confidence and gives Kilmarnock a 57.3% win probability, with the draw at 20.1% and St Mirren at 22.6%. The projected score is 2-1, with 2-1 also the most probable single scoreline at 9.4%. The expected total is about 3.56 goals, and a home win by two or more is the largest margin category at 35.6%.

The data collectively points to a Kilmarnock victory, backed by their head-to-head dominance and the model's probabilities. Their home form is not dominant, and St Mirren's recent run suggests they may be competitive. The projection would be wrong if St Mirren capture a rare away win.