Dundee1-1St Johnstone

Round 5 of the Scottish Premiership sees Dundee host St Johnstone at Dens Park, with the model making the home side clear favourites. Dundee are projected to win 73.7% of the time, with a 1-0 scoreline the projected outcome. Both sides enter on short rest after congested schedules.

Dundee's home record over their last 20 matches shows 10 wins, 4 draws and 6 losses, a 50% win rate. They average 1.65 goals scored and 1.4 conceded at Dens Park. Their last five matches have alternated between wins and losses, scoring once per game on average.

St Johnstone's away record is limited to two matches, both defeats, with 0.5 goals scored and 1.5 conceded per game. Their overall recent form is one win and two losses in the last three, with 1.67 goals scored and 2 conceded. The away sample is too small to draw firm conclusions.

No prior meetings are on record between Dundee and St Johnstone. With no head-to-head history, there is nothing to lean on from past encounters.

Dundee's home advantage is evident in their splits: they win half of their home games and outscore opponents 1.65 to 1.4. St Johnstone's away numbers are far weaker, but are based on just two matches. The contrast in sample sizes warrants caution.

Both teams are playing on a short turnaround — Dundee with three days' rest and St Johnstone with four. The match is marked as congested for both sides. St Johnstone's away struggles and Dundee's home solidity are the main statistical inputs.

The Poisson model gives Dundee a 73.7% win probability, making a home win the most likely outcome at medium confidence. It projects a 1-0 scoreline, with the most likely exact scores being 1-0, 2-0 and 3-0. Around 2.44 total goals are expected, with a 70% chance of two or more, and home wins by two-plus goals are more likely than one-goal wins (47.2% vs 26.4%). The probability that each side scores at least once is 31.8%.

The data points to a Dundee victory, with the model's 73.7% probability the clearest signal. The main caveat is St Johnstone's tiny away sample and the congestion affecting both teams. Should St Johnstone outperform their recent away form, the margin could tighten, but the model sees that as a low-probability path.