CelticvsAberdeen

Celtic host Aberdeen at Celtic Park in round 5 of the Scottish Premiership. The model assigns Celtic an 87.8% win probability, the strongest input being a home record of 16 wins in 20 and a perfect 3-0 head-to-head record against Aberdeen.

Celtic's last 20 home matches have produced 16 wins, one draw and three losses, with an average of 2.25 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per game. Their most recent five games (WLWWW) have seen them score 3.0 and concede 1.4 per match. They are playing four days after their last outing, a short turnaround.

Aberdeen have won five, drawn two and lost 13 of their last 20 away games, averaging 0.8 scored and 1.65 conceded. Their last five matches (LWLWW) show 1.8 scored and 1.0 conceded, though that recent run is a small sample. They come in on a three-day turnaround.

The three meetings on record have all been won by Celtic, who hold a 7-2 aggregate goal advantage. One of the three games finished with two or fewer total goals, leaving the average at three goals per meeting. Aberdeen have not taken a point from this fixture in the available data.

Celtic Park is a clear factor: Celtic win 80% of home games while Aberdeen win only 25% on the road. The expected goals projection of 2.97 for Celtic and 0.42 for Aberdeen reflects a stark home-away split. Aberdeen's away scoring average of 0.8 is less than half of Celtic's home average of 2.25.

Both sides are on short turnarounds, with Celtic at four days and Aberdeen at three. No league table data is available for this season, and the model rates its confidence as medium. Aberdeen's away struggles and Celtic's home strength are the main inputs, with no other contextual data to weigh.

The Poisson model projects a 2-0 Celtic win, with expected goals of 2.97 to 0.42. The most likely exact scorelines are 2-0 (14.9%), 3-0 (14.7%) and 4-0 (10.9%), and the win probability is 87.8% home, 9.2% draw and 3.1% away. Total goals are projected at 3.39, with an 85.2% chance of at least two goals and a 70% chance of a home win by two or more. The model puts the chance of each side scoring at least once at 32.8%.

The data points consistently to a comfortable Celtic home win, the model's most likely outcome at 87.8%. An Aberdeen result would require overturning both a poor away record and a head-to-head history with no points taken. Even with medium confidence and short rest for both teams, the projected margin is wide enough that anything other than a Celtic victory would be a significant surprise.