St Johnstone2-1Hibernian

Round 6 of the Scottish Premiership takes St Johnstone and Hibernian to McDiarmid Park, with the hosts on three points from three games. Hibernian carry a 51.2% win probability in the model, though their league table data comes from the 2025-26 season rather than the current campaign.

St Johnstone sit ninth in the current table with one win and two losses from three matches, scoring 1.67 goals per game while conceding 2. Their attack ranks fourth in the division, but the defence ranks 11th of 12. Their last three results, most recent first, are a loss, a loss, and a win.

Hibernian finished fifth in the 2025-26 season with 51 points from 33 games, averaging 1.55 scored and 1.12 conceded. Across their last 20 away matches they have eight wins, six draws and six losses, scoring 1.3 and conceding 1.25 per game. Their most recent five matches read WLDWD.

No prior meetings between St Johnstone and Hibernian are on record, so the head-to-head sample is too small to support any trend. This fixture starts from a blank slate.

St Johnstone's only home game this season ended in a win, with four goals scored and three conceded, though that is a one-match sample. Hibernian's away record over the last 20 games puts their win rate at 40% and their average scoring at 1.3 per trip.

St Johnstone have had eight days of rest compared with Hibernian's seven, a marginal difference. Hibernian's projections rely on a full previous season, while St Johnstone's profile comes from just three current fixtures, which adds uncertainty. The home side's defensive ranking and Hibernian's attack both point toward goals.

The model assigns Hibernian a 51.2% win probability, with a 28.2% chance for St Johnstone and 20.6% for the draw, and rates its confidence as high. The projected scoreline is 1-2, and the most likely exact scores are 1-2, 1-1 and 2-2. About 3.77 goals are expected, with a 70.7% chance both teams score. On the winning margin, an away win by two or more leads the distribution at 30.7%, followed by a one-goal away win at 20.5%.

The data points to a Hibernian victory, with the model's margin distribution favoring an away win by multiple goals. That read would be undermined if St Johnstone's small-sample home form proves more representative than their season start, or if Hibernian's away inconsistency from last season carries over.