RB LeipzigvsEintracht Frankfurt

The match uses 2025-2026 season figures because the current 2026-2027 table is incomplete. Leipzig rank third with a 58.8% win rate, while Frankfurt sit eighth with a lower scoring rate. The model projects the most likely result as a Leipzig victory at 65.7%.

Leipzig’s home performance is strong, averaging 2.6 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over their last 20 league games. Their recent run is 1 win, 1 loss, 1 loss, 1 win, 1 win, with an average of 2.0 scored and 1.8 conceded.

Frankfurt’s win rate is 32.4%, and their away form over the last 20 league games shows an average of 2.2 scored and 2.05 conceded. Their recent run is 1 win, 1 loss, 1 win, 1 loss, 1 draw.

Four meetings are on record. Leipzig have won three, Frankfurt have won one. The aggregate goal total is 17, averaging 4.25 per meeting. There have been no meetings with 2 or fewer total goals.

Leipzig’s home average is 2.6 scored per game, compared to their league average of 1.94. Frankfurt’s away average is 2.2 scored per game, which is close to their league average of 1.79.

Leipzig have had 20 days of rest since their last match, while Frankfurt have had 21 days. Leipzig’s recent schedule strength has been average (11.5), while Frankfurt’s has been slightly tougher (9.3).

The model’s high confidence (Poisson) projects a score of 3-1. The most likely exact scorelines are 3-1 at 6.9%, 2-1 at 6.5%, and 3-2 at 6%. It projects about 4.89 goals in total. The winning margin is projected to be decisive 65.7% of the time (by 1 or 2+ goals).

The data supports a Leipzig win. The projection for a 3-1 scoreline and a 65.7% winning probability highlight the expected outcome. The model would be wrong if the final score was a draw or an away win.