Borussia DortmundvsWerder Bremen

Round 5 brings Werder Bremen to Signal Iduna Park, where the model makes Borussia Dortmund an 82.8% favourite. The 2026-27 table is too young to read, so the relevant figures come from 2025-26: Dortmund second on 73 points, Bremen fifteenth on 32.

Dortmund's 2025-26 season produced 70 goals scored and 34 conceded — the division's best defence and third-best attack. At home they won 14 of 20, scoring 2.3 and conceding 1.1 per game. They finished that campaign with five straight victories, averaging three goals scored and 0.8 conceded.

Bremen ended 2025-26 fifteenth, with 37 scored and 60 conceded and the 17th-ranked attack in the league. Away from home they won 5 of 20, scoring 1.3 and conceding 1.6 per game. Their last five league outings produced three wins, a draw and a defeat.

Four meetings are on record and Dortmund are unbeaten in all four — two wins, two draws, a 7-2 aggregate and 2.25 goals per meeting. Two of the four finished with two goals or fewer. The most recent, in May 2026, ended 2-0 to Dortmund; the two before it, both at Dortmund, finished 3-0 and 2-2.

Dortmund's home win rate of 70% sits just above their 64.7% season mark, and their scoring rises from 2.06 overall to 2.3 at Signal Iduna Park. Bremen's away split is 5 wins from 20, a 25% rate close to their 23.5% overall, with 1.3 scored and 1.6 conceded per road game against 1.09 and 1.76 overall.

Both sides have had 20 days since their last match, so neither carries a scheduling advantage. Dortmund's two most recent fixtures came against opponents averaging a rank of 4.5; Bremen's four averaged 8.3. The main caveat is the data itself — four rounds of 2026-27 are not captured here, and the 2025-26 table is the only meaningful sample.

The Poisson model returns Dortmund 82.8%, draw 11.1%, Bremen 6.1%, at high confidence. Expected goals are 3.09 and 0.77, giving a projected 3-0; the likeliest exact scorelines are 3-0 (10.4%), 2-0 (10.1%) and 4-0 (8.1%). Combined goals project to about 3.86, with 73.9% for three or more and 51.1% that each side scores at least once. The margin leans wide: 64.7% for a Dortmund win by two or more, 18.1% by exactly one.

A second-placed side with the division's best defence, facing a fifteenth-placed one, at home, unbeaten across four recorded meetings. The model's projected margin of two or more covers roughly two-thirds of its simulations. The honest counterweight is sample size: this rests on a completed season, not on the four rounds of 2026-27 already played.