AugsburgvsBayern Munich

Bayern Munich are heavy favourites to extend their unbeaten start at the WWK Arena. The model projects an away win with a combined total of 5.71 goals and a narrow majority of results where Bayern Munich score 4 or more.

Augsburg sit ninth in the 2025-2026 table with a positive goal difference (-16). Their home record over 20 league games is strong at 9W 6D 5L, averaging 1.65 goals scored and 1.70 conceded. A recent 2-6 away win suggests Augsburg can score against top opposition, though their defence remains a weakness.

Bayern Munich led the 2025-2026 table with 89 points, scoring more goals than any other side (122) and conceding the fewest (36). Their away record of 16W 3D 1L over 20 league games is the best in the division. They have scored at least 2.4 goals per game in their last 5 matches, maintaining that dominance on the road.

Bayern Munich have won the last four meetings between the sides, but Augsburg have contributed to high-scoring games. Three of the last four matches produced over 3.5 goals, with an average of 3.75 goals per game.

Both teams exceed their league averages at home. Augsburg score 1.65 goals and concede 1.70 at the WWK Arena, while Bayern Munich score 3.0 and concede 1.25 away from home.

Augsburg's home scoring rate (1.65) is nearly double their league average (1.32), while Bayern Munich concede more away (1.25) than at home (1.06). This combination suggests a high-scoring affair at the WWK Arena.

The model projects Bayern Munich win with a confidence level of 88.5% and an expected score of 1-4. The most likely individual scorelines are 1-4 (7.1%) and 1-5 (6.5%). The model gives a 97.7% chance of at least two goals and a 68.8% chance of goals from both teams.

Bayern Munich are overwhelming favourites, with the model assigning an 88.5% probability of a home defeat for Augsburg. The result hinges on Bayern's away scoring and Augsburg's home attack, both of which support a high-scoring, one-sided contest.