RangersvsMotherwell

This round 6 Scottish Premiership match at Ibrox pairs last season's second- and fourth-placed teams. Since the current table is still too small to interpret, the figures below come from 2025-26. The model gives Rangers a 47.7% win probability, yet projects a 1-1 scoreline.

Rangers finished 2025-26 with 69 points, the league's top attack (66 goals) and the third-best defence (31 conceded). Over their last 20 home league matches they won 14, a 70% win rate, averaging 2.3 scored and 1.05 conceded per game. Their most recent five results (WLWWD) saw 1.6 goals scored and 0.6 conceded per game.

Motherwell took 54 points last season, with the second-best defensive record (29 conceded) and a fourth-ranked attack (52 scored). Away from home in their previous 20 league games they recorded seven wins, six draws and seven losses, scoring 1.45 and conceding 1.25 per game. Their latest five results (DLLLW) have included 2.2 conceded per game.

The last four meetings are completely balanced: one win for each side and two draws, with goals level at 5-5. Three of the four produced two or fewer total goals. Most recently, Rangers lost 2-3 at home to Motherwell in April 2026.

Rangers' home form is imposing, with 14 wins in their last 20 at Ibrox and a 2.3 goals-per-game scoring rate. Motherwell's away record is more modest, with a 35% win rate and 1.45 goals scored per game. The model's 1-1 projection suggests this gap may not be decisive.

Both sides have had six days of rest since their last matches on 30 August. Because all figures come from the prior season, some uncertainty attaches to these projections. Rangers' recent opponents were slightly stronger (average rank 9) than Motherwell's (average rank 10).

The model, run with high confidence, assigns Rangers 47.7%, a draw 25.9%, and Motherwell 26.4%, making a home win the most likely outcome. The projected scoreline is 1-1, and the most likely individual scoreline is also 1-1 at 12.3%. Total goals are projected at about 2.54, with a 72.2% chance of at least two goals, and among winning margins the draw carries the highest probability at 25.9%.

The data points to a tight, potentially low-scoring game. Rangers' home strength is matched against Motherwell's defensive solidity and an even head-to-head record. The model's most likely outcome is a Rangers win, but at 47.7% it is far from a certainty, and the most likely exact scoreline is 1-1.