Osasuna0-0Levante

Round 2 of the 2026-2027 La Liga season sees Osasuna welcome Levante to El Sadar. The two sides finished last season level on 42 points, separated only by goal difference, with Osasuna 17th and Levante 16th. Because the current season has just begun, the figures that follow are drawn from the 2025-2026 campaign.

The most important number for this fixture is the model's win probability: Osasuna are given a 47.5% chance of taking all three points, against 27.6% for Levante and 24.9% for a draw. The same model projects roughly 2.74 total goals and a most likely scoreline of 1-1, making this a tight contest on paper.

Osasuna's 2025-2026 table record was 11 wins, 9 draws and 18 losses from 38 matches, with 44 goals scored and 50 conceded. That placed them 17th. Their home record over the last 20 matches at El Sadar is notably better: 9 wins, 5 draws and 6 losses, with an average of 1.6 goals scored and 1.3 conceded per game. That 45% home win rate is a clear step up from their overall 28.9%.

Osasuna have lost their last two matches, with three wins before that in their previous five. Over those five games they averaged 1.4 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per match. Their last outing was on 8 August 2026, giving them 16 days of rest before this fixture.

Levante's 2025-2026 season produced the same 11-9-18 record as Osasuna, but with 47 goals scored and 61 conceded, a goal difference of -14 compared to Osasuna's -6. They finished 16th. Away from home over the last 20 matches, Levante have 5 wins, 4 draws and 11 losses, averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game. Their away win rate is 25%.

In their most recent five matches, Levante have gone L-W-L-W-L, with an average of 1.2 goals scored and 1.4 conceded. Their last match was on 16 August 2026, eight days before this fixture. Their schedule has also been demanding recently, with an average opponent rank of 6.3 across their last three fixtures.

The history between these sides is limited, with only two meetings on record. Osasuna have won one, Levante one. The most recent meeting, in May 2026, saw Levante win 3-2 at home; the earlier meeting in December 2025 ended 2-0 to Osasuna at El Sadar. Across those two games, a total of 7 goals were scored, an average of 3.5 per match, and one of the two matches finished with two or fewer goals.

With such a small sample, the head-to-head record offers little predictive value. It does show that when these teams meet, goals have been relatively plentiful, but that is based on two matches only.

Osasuna's home numbers from the last 20 matches at El Sadar show 9 wins, 5 draws and 6 losses, a 45% win rate. That is a significant improvement on their overall win rate of 28.9%, underlining the importance of playing at home. They average 1.6 goals scored and 1.3 conceded at home, compared to 1.16 scored and 1.32 conceded overall.

Levante's away numbers tell the opposite story. In their last 20 away matches they have won just 5, drawn 4 and lost 11, with a 25% win rate and an average of 1.65 goals conceded per game. Their overall figures were 1.24 scored and 1.61 conceded per game, so the away form is slightly worse at both ends. This combination of solid home form for Osasuna and poor away form for Levante is a central theme for the match.

The data used for the table is from the 2025-2026 season, and with only one round of the new campaign played, current league positions are not yet reliable. That means the projections here are based largely on last season's performance levels.

Fatigue and rest favour the home side. Osasuna have had 16 days since their last match, while Levante have had eight. Levante's recent schedule has been demanding, with an average opponent rank of 6.3 across their last three fixtures, suggesting they have faced tougher opposition than Osasuna in the early going. There is no indication of promotion-related uncertainty for either side, as both are established La Liga clubs.

Both teams finished level on points last season, so the gap between them is narrow. The main factors separating them in the model are Osasuna's home advantage and Levante's defensive fragility, which saw them concede the most goals in the division last season (61, a defence ranked 20th of 20).

The Poisson model rates this as a high-confidence projection. It gives Osasuna a 47.5% win probability, with Levante at 27.6% and the draw at 24.9%. The model's most likely outcome is therefore an Osasuna win, though the most likely exact scoreline is 1-1, at 11.8%. The discrepancy arises because expected goals for the two teams are close: 1.59 for Osasuna and 1.15 for Levante, leading to a projected score of 1-1 when rounded.

The total-goals projection is about 2.74, with a 75.9% chance of at least two goals and a 51.7% chance of at least three. The model also estimates a 54.5% chance that both teams score. Looking at individual margins, the draw is the most likely single category at 24.9%, just ahead of a home win by two or more (24.5%) and a home win by one (23%). Away wins, whether by one or two-plus, are considered less likely at 16.6% and 11% respectively.

Taken together, the data points to a narrow home win. Osasuna's home form last season was strong, and Levante's away record was poor, with the latter conceding the most goals in the division. The model's most likely outcome is an Osasuna victory, even though the most probable exact scoreline is a 1-1 draw.

That projection would be undone if Osasuna fail to translate last season's home strength into this campaign, or if Levante's recent upturn in results continues. With only two previous meetings on record, the head-to-head is too small a sample to lean on, and the season is too young for current form to be fully reliable. The expectation is a close, moderately high-scoring contest with the home side holding the edge.