Real SociedadvsDeportivo de A Coruña

Real Sociedad host Deportivo de A Coruña at the Reale Arena in round eight of La Liga. The two data sets come from different windows: Real Sociedad's describes a full 2025-26 campaign that ended tenth on 46 points, while Deportivo's covers three matches of this season, from which they have taken five points. The Poisson model leans away — 50.8% Deportivo, 26.8% Real Sociedad, 22.4% draw.

Real Sociedad finished tenth last season with 11W 13D 14L, scoring 59 and conceding 61. That minus-two goal difference reflects a defence ranked 19th of 20 alongside an attack ranked sixth. At home they were better: 9W 5D 6L in their last 20, 1.8 goals scored per game and a 45% win rate. Their last five read WLWDW, at 1.6 scored and 1.6 conceded.

Deportivo sit eighth after three matches, unbeaten at 1W 2D with five scored and three conceded. Their away record is the more substantial number: 10W 8D 2L across the last 20 road matches, conceding 0.95 per game with a 50% win rate. Recent form is DLDWW, at 1.6 scored and 1.2 conceded.

No prior meetings between these two are on record, so there is no historical record to lean on in either direction. Any read on this fixture has to come from each side's own numbers.

Real Sociedad's home split improves on their overall profile — a 45% win rate at the Reale Arena against 28.9% for the season, and 1.8 goals scored against 1.55. For Deportivo, the last 20 away matches (1.45 scored, 0.95 conceded) are the strongest split in this fixture's data. Their current-season overall figures of 1.67 scored and one conceded per game rest on three matches and should be read accordingly.

Both sides last played on 20 September, so each arrives after a 21-day gap between fixtures. Real Sociedad's last five opponents averaged a rank of 9; Deportivo's averaged 7.4, a marginally tougher recent slate. The binding caveat is sample size: three matches for Deportivo against a completed 38-game season for Real Sociedad.

The model projects 3.21 goals combined — 83% for two or more, 62.3% for three or more, 40% for four or more — with expected values of 1.32 and 1.89. The most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 10.1%, ahead of 1-2 at 9.5% and 0-1 at 7.6%, and there is a 62.2% chance each side scores at least once. On margins, away by two or more is the largest band at 28.8%, with away by one at 22% and the draw at 22.4%. Confidence is rated high.

The numbers point to Deportivo as the more likely winner at 50.8%, with away by two or more the largest single margin outcome at 28.8%. The 1-1 scoreline and the 22.4% draw keep the projection short of decisive, and Real Sociedad's 1.8 goals per home game is the main reason an away win is not clearer. The read would be wrong if Deportivo's three-match start is closer to their true level than a 20-match away record, which would make a tighter, lower-scoring game more plausible.