Real BetisvsOsasuna

Real Betis host Osasuna in round eight of La Liga at the Estadio de La Cartuja. The table figures below come from 2025-26, since the current season's sample is too small to read. Betis finished fifth on 60 points, Osasuna 17th on 42, and the venue records split sharply: one home defeat in Betis's last 20 league matches, five away wins in Osasuna's last 20.

Betis finished fifth with 15 wins, 15 draws and 8 losses, scoring 59 and conceding 48 — an attack ranked fifth in the division and a defence ranked seventh. Their most recent five matches produced four wins and a draw, at 1.6 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per game. Their last recorded match was on 20 September, 21 days before this fixture.

Osasuna ended last season 17th on 42 points, with 11 wins, 9 draws and 18 losses, 44 scored and 50 conceded, and a win rate of 28.9%. Their closing table form reads five straight defeats. Across their last five matches they averaged 0.8 scored and 2.4 conceded, and their last outing was 19 September, 22 days ago.

Four meetings are on record and Betis are unbeaten in them: two wins and two draws, with a 6-3 goals advantage. Three of the four produced two goals or fewer, and the aggregate is 2.25 per meeting. The most recent, on 12 April 2026, finished Osasuna 1-1 Real Betis. Four matches is a small sample to lean on heavily.

Betis's home record is markedly stronger than their overall profile: 12 wins, seven draws and one defeat in their last 20 at home, at 0.8 conceded per game against 1.26 overall, and a 60% win rate against 39.5%. Osasuna's away numbers move the other way — 1.05 scored and 1.65 conceded, a 25% win rate against 28.9% overall.

Both sides arrive after a long gap: 21 days for Betis, 22 for Osasuna. Schedule strength points in opposite directions — Betis's three most recent fixtures came against an average opponent rank of 4, while Osasuna's five came against an average of 8.8.

The Poisson model gives Betis a 54.1% win probability, with the draw at 23.6% and Osasuna at 22.3%, at high confidence. It projects a 1-1 scoreline from expected values of 1.74 and 1.03, and 1-1 is also the single most likely exact score at 11.2%, ahead of 1-0 at 10.9% and 2-1 at 9.8%. The total sits near 2.77 goals, with a 76.4% chance of two or more and 52.4% of three or more; the model puts the chance of each side scoring at least once at 53%. The margin distribution leans home: 30% for a Betis win by two or more, 24.1% by one, against 8% for an Osasuna win by two or more.

The numbers converge on a home win: a side beaten once in 20 home matches, an opponent whose closing form was five defeats, and a model putting Betis above 54%. What would undercut that is the goal expectation — the edge is not overwhelming, and three of the four previous meetings stayed at two goals or fewer, which keeps a draw live at 23.6%.