LevantevsSevilla

This La Liga fixture features two sides ranked in the bottom half of the 2025-2026 table, with Levante (16th) holding a slim two-point advantage over Sevilla (13th). The hosts have been stronger at home, posting a 45% win rate there, while the visitors have managed only a 30% success rate on the road over the same sample size.

Levante's home record shows a scoring average of 1.55 goals per game while conceding 1.50. Their last five matches, including a 2-0 win over Sevilla on April 23, have produced an average of 1.6 goals scored and 1.8 conceded. A 22-day break since their last match precedes this contest.

Sevilla has performed similarly in attack and defence on the road, averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per away game. Their recent form across the last five games is 1-1-3, with the most recent a 1-2 win. They also had a 23-day break prior to this fixture.

Only two meetings are recorded between these sides. In those two games, Levante has won both without conceding, with a combined score of 5-0. The other game in this two-game sample featured fewer than three total goals.

Levante's home scoring average is 1.55 goals per game, while their overall league average is 1.24 per game. Their home defense of 1.50 conceded is superior to their league-wide average of 1.61. Sevilla's 1.15 goals per game on the road is lower than their overall 1.21 average, and they concede 1.55 per away game versus 1.58 overall.

Sevilla and Levante have faced relatively difficult schedules recently, with average opponent ranks of 6.3 and 6.5 respectively. The fixture comes at a congested period, with both teams having around three weeks between matches. Levante's defence is currently ranked 20th in the league, which could be a factor given Sevilla's current league attack ranking of 12th.

The Poisson model projects a combined total of approximately 3.04 goals, with a 60.6% probability of at least one goal from each side. It assigns a 44.6% win probability to the home side, 23.8% to a draw, and 31.6% to the away win. The model predicts a score of 1-1 as the most likely exact outcome, followed by 2-1 and 1-0. The projected winning margin is tight, with a 23.8% probability of a draw and the home side having a 21.3% chance of winning by exactly one goal.

The statistical projection leans toward a low-scoring game with a modest home advantage. Given the model's 44.6% win probability for Levante, the data supports them as the slight favorites. The prediction could be invalid if Sevilla's road goal-scoring rate improves or if Levante's high scoring average at home is not replicated in this fixture.