HibernianvsHeart of Midlothian

Hibernian welcome Heart of Midlothian to Easter Road for a Scottish Premiership fixture in round 5. The model strongly favors the hosts, giving them a 70.5% win probability and projecting a 2-0 scoreline, though recent head-to-head results have favored the visitors.

Hibernian's recent form reads WLDWD, averaging 1 goal scored and 0.8 conceded over their last five matches. At home across the past 20 games, they have 11 wins, 3 draws, and 6 losses, with a 55% win rate and averages of 1.7 scored and 1 conceded.

Heart of Midlothian have won 6, drawn 5, and lost 9 of their last 20 away matches, a 30% win rate, while averaging 1.25 scored and 1.7 conceded. Their recent five-match run is WDDWD, with a higher scoring average of 2.6 per game but also 1.6 conceded.

In four recorded meetings, Heart of Midlothian have won three and Hibernian one. The visitors outscored the hosts 6-4, with an average of 2.5 total goals per game. Two of the four meetings produced two or fewer total goals.

Hibernian's home record over the last 20 matches (11W 3D 6L) compares favorably with Hearts' away record (6W 5D 9L). At Easter Road, Hibernian average 1.7 goals scored and 1 conceded, while Hearts average 1.25 scored and 1.7 conceded on the road.

Hibernian enter this match on a short turnaround of four days since their last outing, flagged as congested, while Hearts have had five days. The model rates its confidence as medium, and the head-to-head sample is limited to four meetings, leaving some uncertainty.

The model projects a 2-0 home win, with expected goals of 2.3 for Hibernian and 0.82 for Heart of Midlothian. The most likely exact scorelines are 2-0 (11.7%), 1-0 (10.1%), and 2-1 (9.6%). It puts the probability of at least two total goals at 81.8%, at least three at 60.3%, and a 50.5% chance both sides score. The home side is projected to win by two or more goals 47.2% of the time, versus 23.3% for a one-goal margin.

The data points firmly toward a Hibernian victory, with the model assigning 70.5% probability to that outcome. The hosts' superior home form and the visitors' away defensive averages are the main drivers. A Hearts win would run against the model's read, though their recent scoring form suggests they could keep it competitive.