Heart of MidlothianvsDundee

Heart of Midlothian, last season's top-ranked side in the Scottish Premiership, host Dundee, who finished ninth. All table figures come from the 2025-26 season, as this season's table is too small to be meaningful. The Poisson model gives the hosts a 77.2% win probability.

Hearts had the best defensive record in the 2025-26 Premiership, conceding 0.85 goals per game, and ranked third in attack with 1.76 scored per game. Their last five results are WDDWD, with 2.6 scored and 1.6 conceded per game, and they won their most recent match on 29 August.

Dundee finished ninth in 2025-26, scoring 1.03 and conceding 1.61 per game. Their last five results are LWLWL, with one goal scored per game on average and a loss in their latest match on 30 August.

The two sides have met three times recently, with Hearts winning all three while Dundee scored no goals. Hearts have scored six goals across these meetings, and two of the three produced two or fewer total goals. The sample is small, but the pattern is one-sided.

Hearts' last 20 home matches show 14 wins, five draws and one loss, with 1.9 scored and 0.8 conceded per game. Dundee's last 20 away matches show three wins, three draws and 14 losses, with 0.6 scored and 1.8 conceded per game.

Rest periods are near-identical: Hearts have eight days off since their last match, Dundee seven. Dundee's last five opponents have an average ranking of 6.2.

The model projects a 2-0 home win, with expected goals of 2.41 for Hearts and 0.62 for Dundee. Hearts win in 77.2% of simulations, draws in 15.2%, and Dundee in 7.6%. Home wins by two or more goals occur in 54.4% of simulations, and the leading exact scoreline is 2-0 at 14.1%. Total goals are projected at just over three, with an 80.5% chance of at least two, a 41.9% chance both teams score, and high model confidence.

The data collectively supports a Hearts win: top billing in last season's table, a clean head-to-head sweep, and a pronounced advantage in home versus away form. The model assigns 54.4% probability to a home win by two or more goals, with a draw or Dundee win combining for only 22.8%. The projection depends on those underlying splits holding; a notable shift in either team's form profile would be required to make the draw or an away win credible.