Dundee UnitedvsFalkirk

Two sides that finished mid-table last season — Dundee United seventh, Falkirk sixth — meet in round six of the Scottish Premiership. With only a handful of games played this season, the figures here come from 2025-26. The model gives the hosts a narrow edge, 40.7%, and projects a 1-1 scoreline.

Dundee United's 2025-26 season ended with 9 wins, 13 draws and 11 losses, a goal difference of -9. Their recent run includes one win, three losses and a draw in the last five, with 1.0 goal scored and 2.2 conceded per game. That form came against a tough schedule, with opponents averaging rank 5.2.

Falkirk finished one place above their hosts, on 46 points, with 13 wins and 13 losses. Their last five matches have produced four losses and a draw, scoring just 0.6 and conceding 2.4 per game. The opposition has been even tougher, averaging rank 4.0.

Only three meetings are on record, making the head-to-head sample small. The record is level, with Falkirk outscoring Dundee United 7-5 across the three games, each of which produced at least three goals. The most recent, in February 2026, went to Dundee United 3-2 at Falkirk, after a 3-0 Falkirk win at Tannadice and a 2-2 draw.

In their last 20 home games, Dundee United have won 30%, with an average of 1.05 goals scored and 1.3 conceded. Falkirk's last 20 away games show a 35% win rate, with 0.9 scored and 1.5 conceded per game. The home side's defensive numbers are slightly better, which contributes to the model's home lean.

Both teams have had seven days' rest, so there is no scheduling edge. Falkirk's recent schedule has been tougher, facing opponents ranked 4.0 on average to Dundee United's 5.2. With only a handful of matches played this season, the projections rely on last season's full data, when both defences ranked in the bottom half of the league.

The model projects about 3.25 total goals, with an 83.5% chance of at least two and a 64.4% chance both teams score. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-1 at 10.2%, but the aggregate probabilities favour Dundee United: 40.7% to 36.1% for Falkirk, with a draw at 23.2%. The winning-margin distribution is spread broadly — a draw is the single most common margin, at 23.2%, while home wins by one and two-plus goals combine to 40.7%. The model rates this projection as high confidence.

The model's most likely outcome is a Dundee United win, but only slightly, with 40.7% against 36.1% for Falkirk. The projected 1-1 scoreline and a 64.4% chance of both teams scoring suggest an even match. Given that every prior meeting produced at least three goals, the total-goals projection of about 3.25 carries the clearest signal, and any of the three results would fit the data.