Deportivo AlavésvsOsasuna

Deportivo Alavés hosts Osasuna for a Round 4 fixture at the Estadio de Mendizorroza. With historical H2H results suggesting balanced contestation, the model identifies a statistically tight match-up.

Alavés comes into this game on a positive run, having notched three wins and two draws in their last five league appearances. Their home record in the prior season showed a win rate of 40%.

Osasuna has not won a league match since August, ending their previous campaign near the bottom of the table with a 28.9% win rate. Their form in away games in 2025-26 was notably weaker than at home.

The teams have met four times in total, with Alavés managing no wins and Osasuna a single victory. They have drawn three of those fixtures, averaging 3.25 total goals per meeting.

Home and away splits from the previous season show Alavés conceded fewer goals (1.15) when playing at Estadio de Mendizorroza compared to their season average (1.47). Osasuna's road goals (0.95) trailed their season average.

The model flags a slight advantage for the home side. Both teams have had a rest period exceeding five days prior to this fixture.

The Poisson-based projection puts the home win at 39%, the draw at 26.9%, and the away win at 34%. The expected total is approximately 2.5 goals. The model is highly confident that this game will feature multiple goals (71.4%).

The model's primary projection is a 1-1 draw, though it assigns a 39% probability to a home victory. The overall picture points to a closely contested match, with a scoreline between 1-0 and 1-1 being the most probable.