Real SociedadvsCelta Vigo

Real Sociedad host Celta Vigo in round six of the 2026-27 La Liga season, with both sides looking to build on their opening results. The data here comes from the 2025-26 campaign, where Celta finished sixth (54 points) and Real Sociedad tenth (46 points). The model sees a finely balanced fixture, rating a home win as the single most likely outcome but at just 40.3%.

Real Sociedad ended 2025-26 in tenth place with 46 points from 38 games, scoring 59 and conceding 61. Their attack ranked sixth in the division but the defence was the second-worst, ranked 19th of 20. Over their last five matches they averaged one goal scored and 2.2 conceded, with a most recent result on 29 August.

Celta Vigo finished sixth last season with 54 points, a record of 14 wins, 12 draws and 12 defeats. They were mid-table in both attack (seventh) and defence (eighth). Their recent five-match run produced an average of 1.6 goals scored and 1.2 conceded, with their last outing on 27 August.

The four recorded meetings give Celta the edge: two wins, one draw and one defeat, with Real Sociedad winning once alongside one draw and two losses. Goals have been relatively scarce – three of the four games finished with two or fewer total goals, though the most recent meeting, in January 2026, ended 3-1 in Real Sociedad's favour.

Real Sociedad's home form was markedly better than their overall record: in their last 20 home games they won 45%, averaging 1.95 goals scored per game. Celta were equally strong on the road, also winning 45% of their last 20 away games while conceding an average of exactly one goal per game. That mirrors their overall records closely.

Rest days differ slightly: Real Sociedad have five days between matches, Celta seven. Real Sociedad's recent schedule has been tougher, with an average opponent rank of six across their last three fixtures, against an average rank of 13 for Celta's last two. Both sides' numbers come from the previous season, so form in this young campaign remains uncertain.

The Poisson model gives Real Sociedad a 40.3% win probability, with a draw at 23.2% and Celta at 36.5%. The projected score is 1-1, and the most likely exact scorelines are 1-1 (10.3%), 2-1 (8.5%) and 1-2 (8.1%). The model expects around 3.24 total goals, with a 64.3% chance that each side scores at least once; the winning-margin distribution is tight, with a draw the single most common margin at 23.2%, and home wins by one and two-plus goals at 19.7% and 20.5% respectively. Confidence is high.

The aggregate data points to a narrowly balanced match with a slight lean toward Real Sociedad, reflecting home advantage and a model edge. Celta's strong away record and better league finish last season are the main counterweights. The model's high goal expectation (around 3.2) is the key assumption; a lower-scoring game would likely narrow the home edge further.