Athletic Bilbao3-0Atlético Madrid

This Round 4 La Liga fixture sees Athletic Bilbao host Atlético Madrid at San Mamés. The table figures below come from the 2025-2026 season, as the current campaign has only a few rounds played. Atlético finished fourth with 69 points, while Athletic ended 12th with a negative goal difference.

Athletic Bilbao's 2025-2026 record was 13W 6D 19L, averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game. Their last five matches were WLLLL, with 0.8 scored and 1.8 conceded per game. At home across 20 matches they posted 8W 4D 8L, a 40% win rate, scoring 1.2 and conceding 1.25 per game.

Atlético Madrid finished fourth last season with 21W 6D 11L, scoring 1.63 and conceding 1.16 per game. Their last five league matches were WDWWL, averaging 2.0 goals scored and 1.4 conceded. Over 20 away games they had 8W 4D 8L, with 1.6 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game.

Across four recorded meetings, Atlético Madrid hold a 3-1 advantage over Athletic Bilbao. Atlético won 3-2 at home in April 2026, 1-0 at home in March 2025, and 1-0 away in August 2024; Athletic's win was 1-0 at home in December 2025. Three of the four meetings saw two or fewer total goals.

Athletic's home sample shows a 40% win rate from 20 matches, better than their overall 34.2% win rate, though they still conceded 1.25 per game at San Mamés. Atlético's away form is less stable than their season numbers: they win 40% of away games and concede 1.65 per game, compared to 1.16 overall.

Both teams come in with similar rest, Athletic with six days and Atlético with seven. Athletic's last three fixtures were against opponents with an average rank of 6.7, while Atlético's last two opponents averaged rank 8. With the table data drawn from last season, early-season form is not captured here.

The Poisson model rates Atlético Madrid's win probability at 52.3%, the draw at 23.5%, and Athletic at 24.2%, making an away win the most likely outcome. The projected scoreline is 1-1 from expected goals of 1.12 and 1.75, with 1-1 the most probable individual scoreline at 11.1%. The model expects about 2.87 total goals, with a 78.1% chance of at least two goals and a 55.6% chance both teams score. The margin distribution gives Atlético a 28.9% chance of winning by two or more, versus 9.3% for Athletic.

The data favours an Atlético Madrid win: they were the stronger side last season, lead the head-to-head, and the model gives them a high-confidence 52.3% chance. Athletic's home record is only modest, and their recent form had them conceding 1.8 per game. The projection would be wrong if Athletic's home defensive numbers from the 20-match sample improve in the new campaign and Atlético's away conceding rate remains as high as 1.65 per game.