Villarreal2-3Deportivo de A Coruña

Villarreal host Deportivo de A Coruña in round four of La Liga, with no prior head-to-head meetings on record. Villarreal arrive off a third-place finish in 2025-26, while Deportivo are unbeaten through three matches this season. The model makes a Villarreal win the most likely outcome at 42.1%.

Villarreal's 2025-26 league numbers stand out: 72 points, an attack ranked third in the division and a defence ranked sixth. Their last five matches across all competitions have produced two wins, two draws and a loss, averaging 1.4 goals scored per game.

Deportivo are eighth in the early 2026-27 table with five points from three games, scoring five and conceding three. Their recent five-match run reads WDDLW, with a 1.2 goals-per-game scoring rate and 0.8 conceded.

There are no prior meetings between Villarreal and Deportivo on record, so the head-to-head column is empty. With such a small sample, historical results offer no basis for a lean.

At home, Villarreal have won 12 of their last 20 matches, averaging 2.2 goals scored and 1.35 conceded. Deportivo have lost only three of their last 20 away games, winning half, with 0.9 goals conceded per game on the road.

Villarreal have had eight days since their last match, two more than Deportivo's six. Deportivo's three league fixtures have come against tougher opposition on average (rank 8.7 versus 11.3 for Villarreal), though both schedules are small samples. Deportivo's table numbers also rest on just three matches, so they carry more uncertainty than Villarreal's full-season figures.

The model gives Villarreal a 42.1% win probability, a 24% draw chance and a 33.9% chance for the away side, making a home win the most likely outcome. Yet the most likely exact scoreline is 1-1, at 11%, because the expected-goal projections are close (1.61 to 1.42). The model projects about three goals combined, with an 80.6% chance of at least two and a 60.7% chance that each side scores; the margin distribution is tight, with the draw the most common single margin at 24%, and one-goal wins either side at 20.8% and 18.3%. The model's confidence is high.

The data favors a narrow Villarreal win, but 57.9% of the model's probability sits with a draw or an away win. The 1-1 scoreline is the most likely exact result, and Deportivo's away record gives that draw real weight. A Villarreal victory would track their 2025-26 home scoring rate; a drop-off would open the door for Deportivo.