AberdeenvsKilmarnock

Scottish Premiership action at Pittodrie sees Aberdeen host Kilmarnock in round six. With the current campaign still small-sample territory, the figures below draw on the full 2025-26 season, in which Aberdeen finished eighth (33 points) and Kilmarnock eleventh (28 points).

Aberdeen scored 33 and conceded 48 in those 33 games, an average of 1.0 and 1.45 per game. Their last five matches read LWLWW, with 1.8 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per game in that stretch. The attack ranked 11th of 12, defence 6th.

Kilmarnock scored 37 and conceded 65, averaging 1.12 and 1.97 per game, with the league's second-worst defence. Their last five results (LWLLW) averaged 2.2 goals scored and 3.2 conceded, for 5.4 total goals per match. They won just three of their last 20 away games.

Of four recorded meetings, Aberdeen won three and lost one, with each side scoring four goals. Aberdeen won both Pittodrie meetings, 1-0 and 2-1. Kilmarnock's only win came at home, 3-0.

Aberdeen's last 20 home matches produced 9 wins, 5 draws and 6 losses, with 1.65 scored and 1.1 conceded per game. Kilmarnock's last 20 away matches produced 3 wins, 6 draws and 11 losses, with 1.25 scored and 2.2 conceded. Home advantage is the clearest split in the data.

Aberdeen have faced a slightly tougher recent schedule, with opponents averaging rank 5.3 across four matches versus 7.3 for Kilmarnock's three. Rest days are nearly equal: six for Aberdeen, seven for Kilmarnock. The model's key inputs are Aberdeen's home strength and Kilmarnock's away defensive looseness.

The model gives Aberdeen a 49.9% win probability, Kilmarnock 26%, and a draw 24.2%, with high confidence. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-1 at 11.4%, though expected goals are 1.68 to 1.14 in Aberdeen's favor. Total goals are projected at roughly 2.82, with a 77.2% chance of at least two goals. On margin, a home win by two or more (26.7%) edges out a one-goal home win (23.2%).

The data collectively points to a narrow Aberdeen victory, built on a strong home record and a 3-1 head-to-head edge. The model's confidence is high, but the 1-1 scoreline and a 26% away chance leave real uncertainty. A draw or away win would be the main way this projection falls short.