UdinesevsLazio

This early-season Serie A fixture pits two mid-table sides from the 2025-26 campaign against each other, with Udinese having finished 10th and Lazio 9th. The model gives Udinese a 37.2% win probability, the most likely outcome, and projects a 1-0 scoreline. Note that current-season standings are too small a sample; these figures derive from the previous season.

Udinese finished last season with 50 points, scoring 1.18 and conceding 1.26 per game. They have won four of their last five matches (WWDWW), averaging 1.6 goals scored and 0.8 conceded. At home across their last 20, they post an 8-5-7 record with 1.1 scored per game and 0.9 conceded.

Lazio accrued 54 points in 2025-26, ranked ninth, with a goal differential of +1. Their current five-match run is WWLWW, averaging 1.6 scored and 0.6 conceded per match. Away from home in their last 20, Lazio have won nine, drawn six, and lost five, conceding only 0.7 per game.

The sides have met four times on record, and Udinese are unbeaten: one win and three draws, while Lazio have three draws and one loss. Udinese have outscored Lazio 7-6 across those meetings. Two of the four contests produced two or fewer total goals, while the average was 3.25 per game.

Udinese's home splits are modest: 8 wins, 5 draws, and 7 losses in their last 20 matches at the Bluenergy Stadium, averaging 1.1 scored and 0.9 conceded per game. Lazio's away splits are notably stronger: a 9-6-5 record with a 45% win rate, compared to Udinese's 40% home win rate, and they concede just 0.7 per game on the road.

Udinese have had five days of rest since their last match, while Lazio have had eight; neither side is in a congested fixture spell. Schedule strength differs: Udinese's one recent league fixture came against an average opponent rank of 4, while Lazio's two came against an average of 12. As with any early-season sample, these projections rely on prior-season performance, adding some uncertainty.

The model, with high confidence, assigns Udinese a 37.2% win probability, Lazio 32.1%, and the draw 30.7%. The projected score is 1-0, with 1-0 the likeliest individual scoreline at 14.1%, just ahead of 1-1 and 0-0. It expects around two goals total, with a 59.8% chance of two or more, and one-goal margins or a draw account for most possible outcomes; both teams scoring is projected at only 40.2%.

The data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest in which Udinese hold a slight edge through their unbeaten head-to-head record and the 37.2% win probability that is the model's most likely outcome. Still, the combined draw and Lazio win probability (62.8%) outweighs that edge, and Lazio's strong away defensive record is the main reason the forecast could be wrong.