FiorentinavsTorino

This Serie A round-three meeting pits two mid-table sides from last season against each other. Fiorentina finished 15th in 2025-26, three points behind 12th-placed Torino. The model gives the hosts a 47.6% win probability, but the most likely exact scoreline is 1-1, underscoring how evenly matched this pair has been.

Fiorentina's 2025-26 season brought 42 points from 38 games, with only nine wins. Their most recent five matches have produced three defeats and two draws, conceding 2.8 goals per game on average. In their last 20 home matches they have won just five, drawing ten.

Torino claimed 45 points last season, with the division's 19th-ranked defence after conceding 63 goals. Their last five matches read LLWDW, with an average of one goal scored and one conceded. Away from home they have won only four of their last 20, losing ten.

Four meetings are on record, with Fiorentina unbeaten: one win and three draws. Three of those matches produced two goals or fewer. The lone win was a 1-0 Fiorentina success on Torino's ground in November 2024.

Fiorentina have drawn half of their last 20 home matches, while winning only a quarter. Torino have lost half of their last 20 away matches, winning just 20%. Drawn results are a recurring theme in this fixture.

Both sides come in with seven days of rest. Fiorentina's early schedule has been harder, with an average opponent rank of 3, though that spans only one match. The data also highlights Fiorentina's defensive frailty – they have conceded an average of 2.8 goals in their last five – against a Torino side that scored 44 times last season.

The model is confident that a home win is the most likely outcome at 47.6%, compared to 25.6% for a draw and 26.8% for an away win. The single most probable exact scoreline is 1-1 (12.2%), narrowly ahead of 1-0 (11.3%) and 2-1 (9.3%). It projects about 2.6 total goals, with a 73.4% chance of at least two goals and a 24.1% chance of a home win by two or more.

All signs point to a cagey, low-scoring contest with Fiorentina just about ahead. The draw is a strong alternative given the hosts' 50% drawing rate at home and the head-to-head record. If Fiorentina's recent defensive form continues, Torino will be more likely to leave with a point or more than the model's outright probabilities suggest.