RomavsAtalanta

Roma welcome Atalanta to the Stadio Olimpico for round three of Serie A, with both sides having had five days of rest. The model favours Roma at 47.7%, but Atalanta arrive on an unbeaten five-match run. Note that the league table numbers below are from the 2025-2026 season, as this season's table is too young to be meaningful.

Roma finished third in Serie A last season with 73 points, averaging 1.55 goals scored and 0.82 conceded per game. Their attack ranked fourth and their defence second. They ended last season with five consecutive league wins and their latest five results are WWDLW, averaging 2.8 scored and 1.2 conceded per game.

Atalanta finished seventh last season with 59 points, averaging 1.34 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game, with attack and defence both ranked seventh. Their last-season table form was DLWDL, while their current five matches are WWWDW, allowing just 0.2 goals per game.

In four meetings, Roma have never won, with one draw and three losses, while Atalanta have three wins and a draw. Goals stand at 6-2 in Atalanta's favour, and three of the four games had two or fewer total goals.

Roma's home record over their last 20 matches is 14 wins, three draws and three losses (70% win rate), averaging 1.85 goals scored and 0.5 conceded per game. Atalanta's away record over the same span is eight wins, five draws and seven losses (40% win rate), averaging 1.4 scored and 1.15 conceded. The defensive contrast is stark: Roma concede 0.5 at home, Atalanta 1.15 away.

Both teams have had five days of rest since their last match, so scheduling is even. The recent schedule strength differs, though: Roma's two opponents so far average rank 16, while Atalanta's average rank 9.5, meaning Atalanta have faced tougher opposition. Because the league table figures come from last season, projections for this early stage carry some uncertainty.

The model's most likely outcome is a home win at 47.7%, against 29.4% for a draw and 22.9% for an away win, with high confidence. The projected score is 1-0, based on expected goals of 1.25 for Roma and 0.77 for Atalanta. Total goals are projected at about 2.03, with a 60.1% chance of at least two goals and a 38.5% chance both teams score. The margin distribution shows a draw at 29.4%, a one-goal home win at 25.9%, and a home win by two or more at 21.8%.

The data points to a narrow Roma win, with a projected 1-0 scoreline and a 47.7% probability for the home side. Roma's strong home defensive record and Atalanta's tougher recent schedule support that view. The main caveats are the small current-season sample and Atalanta's unbeaten run, which make a draw a plausible alternative.