Tottenham HotspurvsNewcastle United

This is the second round of the 2026-27 Premier League season, with both sides having played once already. The league table is too small to judge, so the numbers below come from the 2025-26 campaign. Tottenham finished 17th while Newcastle were 12th, and the model gives the hosts a narrow win probability edge (39.9% to 36%).

Tottenham's 2025-26 season ended with 41 points from 38 games, scoring 1.26 per game and conceding 1.5. Their attack ranked 12th and defence 17th in the league. Their last five recorded matches brought eight points (LWDWD, most recent first), with 1.4 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game.

Newcastle collected 49 points in 2025-26, finishing 12th, with 1.39 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game. Their attack ranked 9th and defence 15th. In their last five recorded matches they took five points (DDLLW), scoring 1.4 per game but conceding 1.8.

The head-to-head record is firmly in Newcastle's favour: four meetings, three Newcastle wins and one draw. Tottenham have scored five goals and Newcastle eight, with all four games exceeding two goals (13 total, an average of 3.25 per match). Newcastle won the two most recent meetings at this venue.

Across their last 20 home games, Tottenham have 7 wins, 6 draws and 7 defeats, averaging 1.45 scored and 1.4 conceded. Newcastle's last 20 away games show 6 wins, 4 draws and 10 losses, with 1.45 scored but 1.75 conceded. The hosts' home scoring is slightly above their overall rate, while Newcastle concede substantially more away from home.

Rest is balanced: Tottenham last played on Aug 22 and Newcastle on Aug 23. Both have faced similarly demanding schedules, with average opponent ranks of 9.5 and 9.0 respectively. With only one league round played, last season's data is the primary reference, and the model rates its projection as high confidence.

The model gives Tottenham a 39.9% win probability, Newcastle 36%, and the draw 24.2%, making a home win the single most likely outcome. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-1 (11.1%), with 2-1 and 1-2 marginally behind. It projects just over three total goals, with an 80.4% chance of two or more and a 60.7% chance both sides score. In the goal-margin breakdown, a draw is the single largest category (24.2%), ahead of home by one (20.2%) and away by one (19%).

The data points to a close, high-scoring match with a slight lean toward Tottenham, who have the advantage of home and a better recent defensive record. However, Newcastle have dominated this fixture, winning the last two meetings at this ground and three of four overall. If that pattern continues, the away side is likely to take something; otherwise the model's narrow home lean holds.