SunderlandvsBrighton and Hove Albion

Sunderland vs Brighton and Hove Albion features two sides separated by one place in the 2025-2026 table. Sunderland sit seventh with 54 points, while Brighton are eighth on 53. The model projects a draw with a combined total of about 2.36 goals.

Sunderland recorded 14 wins, 12 draws and 12 losses in 38 league matches last season, averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game. Their attack ranked 17th in the division. At home, the side averaged 1.05 goals scored and 1.1 conceded, with a win rate of 45% across 20 matches. They have had a 20-day break since their last match.

Brighton and Hove Albion managed 14 wins, 11 draws and 13 losses in 38 matches last season, averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game. Their attack ranked 10th, and their defence was third. Away from home, they averaged 1.45 goals scored and 1.3 conceded, with a 30% win rate across 20 fixtures. They have had a 21-day break since their last match.

The teams have met twice. Sunderland have one draw and one loss, scoring zero goals in the pair of meetings. Brighton have one win and one draw, scoring one goal. Both previous matches produced a combined total of two goals or fewer.

Sunderland's 2025-2026 home attack (1.05) was slightly better than their overall average, but their home defence (1.1) was markedly stronger than their league-wide average of 1.26. Brighton's away defence (1.3) was the worst among their last 20 away games, while their away attack (1.45) was the strongest away split.

Sunderland were a newly promoted side last season, with their strength adjusted to reflect promotion from a lower division. Both teams have had a relatively long interval since their last competitive fixtures.

The model gives Brighton the highest probability of the three outcomes at 37.8%, while Sunderland are at 34.3% and draws at 27.9%. The projected scoreline is 1-1, with a 68.2% probability of at least two goals being scored. The distribution of winning margins is tight, with the home win by one goal (20.3%) almost as likely as a draw (27.9%).

The model suggests a very balanced contest with Brighton holding a slight edge in win probability. The most likely individual scoreline is a 1-1 draw, followed by a 1-0 away win. The tight distribution of margins indicates the outcome is not highly decisive, with draws and one-goal victories making up a large share of the projected outcomes.