Ipswich TownvsFulham

Round 6 of the Premier League brings Ipswich Town, 12th in the current table, to a home meeting with Fulham at Portman Road. Ipswich have three points from two matches (1W 0D 1L), scoring four and conceding six, while Fulham's figures come from an 11th-place finish in 2025-26. The Poisson model gives Fulham a 46.6% win probability, Ipswich 35% and the draw 18.4%.

Ipswich sit 12th with three points from two games, but the splits are uneven: their attack ranks 7th of 20 in the league while the defence ranks 19th, having conceded six in two matches. Recent form across the last five reads LWLLW at 1.6 goals scored and 2.2 conceded per game. Their most recent match was on 19 September.

Fulham's rankings are drawn from 2025-26, when they finished 11th on 52 points from 38 games (15W 7D 16L), scoring 47 and conceding 51 — an attack ranked 12th and a defence 11th. Recent form is DDLLW, averaging 1.2 scored and 1.0 conceded. Away from home over their last 20 they have 6W 6D 8L, scoring 1.0 per game.

Only two meetings are on record, both draws: Fulham 2-2 Ipswich on 5 January 2025 and Ipswich 1-1 Fulham on 31 August 2024. Each side has scored three goals across them, an average of three per meeting, with one of the two producing two or fewer. A two-match sample is too small to lean on.

Ipswich's home record over their last 20 is 13W 4D 3L with 1.85 scored and 0.8 conceded per game — a 65% win rate that sits well above what their current defensive ranking implies. Fulham's away returns are weaker than their overall profile: 1.0 scored per away game against 1.24 overall, and a win rate down at 30%.

Both sides come off extended gaps — 21 days for Ipswich since 19 September, 20 for Fulham since 20 September. Their recent schedules were near-identical in difficulty, averaging opponent ranks of 12 and 13 across four fixtures. Ipswich's current-season sample is two matches, while Fulham's table numbers are a full season old, which is the main caveat on the inputs.

The model projects 2.28 goals for Ipswich and 2.62 for Fulham, about 4.9 combined, with a 95.6% chance of two or more goals, 86.6% of three or more and 72% of four or more; each side scoring is put at 83.2%. The single most likely scoreline is 2-2 at 6.7%, ahead of 1-2 and 2-3 at 5.8% each — distinct from the most likely outcome, a Fulham win at 46.6%. The margin distribution is lopsided: Fulham by two or more is the largest bucket at 29.1%, against Ipswich by two or more at 19.7% and one-goal margins near 15-18%. Confidence is rated high.

The data points to a Fulham win with goals at both ends: 46.6% is the model's clear preference and it expects roughly five goals. Ipswich's home record — 13 wins in 20 with 0.8 conceded — is the strongest counterweight, and a low-scoring match would undercut the goal projection. The draw, the model's least likely outcome at 18.4%, is the honest alternative if that home record holds.