SunderlandvsFulham

Sunderland and Fulham meet in round two of the Premier League season at the Stadium of Light. Last season's table shows Sunderland in 7th with 54 points and Fulham in 11th with 52, but the two prior head-to-head meetings both ended in Fulham wins. The model gives Sunderland a 40.2% chance of changing that.

Sunderland finished 2025-26 with a 14W-12D-12L record and the league's fourth-best defence, conceding 48 goals in 38 games. Their last five results read LWWWL, averaging 1.2 scored and 0.8 conceded per game. Across their last 20 home matches they won nine, drew six, and lost five.

Fulham ended the season 11th with a 15W-7D-16L record, scoring 47 and conceding 51. Their recent five-match form is LWDWW, with 1.8 goals scored per game and 1.4 conceded. Away from home over their last 20 matches they won six, drew five, and lost nine, conceding 1.6 per game.

Only two meetings are on record, and Fulham won them both: 3-1 away in February 2026 and 1-0 at home in November 2025. Sunderland scored once in total across those matches. The sample is too small to treat as a reliable pattern.

Sunderland's last 20 home games produced a 45% win rate with 1.2 goals scored and 1.1 conceded per game. Fulham's last 20 away games produced a 30% win rate while conceding 1.6 per game. The home/away split clearly favours the hosts.

Sunderland come in with eight days' rest since their last match, two more than Fulham's six. Sunderland's one fixture so far was against an average opponent rank of 14, while Fulham's two fixtures averaged 12.5, a marginally harder schedule.

The model's most likely outcome is a Sunderland win at 40.2%, with a draw at 27.8% and an away win at 32.0%. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-1 at 13.1%, followed by 1-0 and 0-1. Expected goals sit at 1.27 for Sunderland and 1.10 for Fulham, for a combined 2.37, and the model puts a 68.4% chance on at least two goals. Confidence is high, and the margin distribution is narrow: a draw is the most common single margin (27.8%), with one-goal margins on either side nearly as frequent.

The data points to a close, low-scoring game with Sunderland's home advantage giving them a slight edge. A one-goal home win is the most likely non-draw result, but a draw is almost as plausible. The projection would be wrong if Fulham's head-to-head dominance proves more durable than the season-level numbers, or if Sunderland's home form slips.