Nottingham ForestvsTottenham Hotspur

Both sides finished in the bottom half of last season's Premier League, Forest 16th and Spurs 17th, and this round-3 meeting is too early for current table form to carry much weight. The head-to-head is the standout number: Forest have won all four meetings on record, outscoring Tottenham 9-1. The model gives the hosts a 47.2% win probability, even though its most likely exact scoreline is 1-1.

Nottingham Forest ended 2025-26 with an 11-11-16 record and a goal difference of -3. Their last five outings produced two wins, one draw, and two losses, with 1.2 goals scored and conceded per game. At home last season they won only a quarter of matches, averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.1 conceded.

Tottenham finished 17th last season with 10 wins and their defence ranked 17th of 20 in the division. Their recent five-game run has been more open, averaging 1.8 scored and 1.4 conceded. On the road over their last 20 away games they won 30% but conceded 1.85 per game.

In four recorded meetings, Nottingham Forest have won every time, with a 9-1 aggregate score. Both matches at City Ground finished in Forest wins, and three of the four meetings produced more than two total goals.

Forest's home form last season was actually weaker than their overall record: 25% wins at home versus 28.9% overall, with fewer goals scored. Tottenham's away win rate (30%) was slightly better than their overall (26.3%), but they conceded 1.85 per away game, well above their overall 1.5.

Both teams arrive on seven days' rest, with no scheduling disadvantage. Their recent schedules have been similar in difficulty: Forest's three opponents average rank 11, Tottenham's two average 10.5. The head-to-head is a powerful signal, though it rests on just four matches.

The model is confident and projects a tight contest: a 47.2% home win probability, 24.7% draw, and 28.2% away win. It expects about 2.8 total goals, with a 76.9% chance of at least two goals, a 53% chance of three or more, and a 55.6% chance each side scores at least once. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-1 (11.7%), but the home win is the most likely outcome; the margin distribution shows home wins by one and by two-plus at 22.7% and 24.5% respectively.

The data points to a narrow home win: Forest's perfect head-to-head record and 47.2% model probability outweigh Spurs' slightly better away win rate. Yet the most likely exact scoreline is 1-1, and Spurs' recent scoring run suggests they are capable of breaking a four-game losing streak in this fixture. The verdict would be wrong if Tottenham's recent attacking output (1.8 goals per game) outpaces Forest's home concession rate (1.1 per game).