Ipswich TownvsLiverpool

Ipswich Town host Liverpool in a Round 3 Premier League fixture at Portman Road, with the model strongly favoring the hosts. Ipswich won their only league match this season, while Liverpool arrive having managed three draws and two losses in their last five. The model gives Ipswich a 64% chance of taking all three points.

Ipswich sit ninth in the current table with a win from their one league game, scoring twice and conceding once. Their attack and defence both rank eighth in the division. In their last five matches across all competitions they have four wins and one defeat, averaging 2.8 goals scored and 1.8 conceded.

Liverpool's league record is from the 2025-26 season, when they finished fifth with 60 points, 63 goals for and 53 against. Their last five matches have produced three draws and two losses, with an average of 1.6 goals scored and 2.2 conceded. On the road they have won seven, drawn four and lost nine of their last 20 away games.

Only two meetings between these clubs are on record, and Liverpool won both. Ipswich have scored once and conceded six across those games, an average of 3.5 goals per meeting. With such a small sample, the head-to-head offers little predictive weight.

Ipswich's home form is strong: 14 wins, four draws and two losses in their last 20 at Portman Road, averaging 1.9 goals scored and 0.7 conceded. Liverpool's away record over the same sample is 7 wins, 4 draws and 9 losses, conceding 1.6 per game. The home/away split clearly favors Ipswich.

Rest is nearly even, with Ipswich having five days since their last match and Liverpool six. Liverpool's recent schedule has been tougher, facing opponents ranked 8.7 on average across three fixtures, compared with 15.5 for Ipswich's last two. That disparity may help explain Liverpool's recent results.

The Poisson model rates this as a high-confidence projection, giving Ipswich a win probability of 64%, a draw 18.6%, and Liverpool 17.4%. The projected score is 2-1, with an expected 3.54 total goals. The winning-margin distribution has Ipswich by two or more at 42% and by one at 22%, while a draw is 18.6%.

The data collectively points to an Ipswich Town win, built on their home record, Liverpool's away struggles, and a confident model. The most obvious counterweight is the head-to-head: both recorded meetings were Liverpool victories, though that is only two games. If Liverpool's stronger underlying numbers from last season resurface, the model could be wrong.