FulhamvsCrystal Palace

Round 3 of the Premier League season sees Fulham host Crystal Palace at Craven Cottage, though with the campaign still in its early weeks the standings are not yet meaningful; the figures below are from 2025-2026. Fulham finished 11th with 52 points and Palace 15th with 45. The model gives the hosts a 46.1% win probability, making them favourites without overwhelming certainty.

Fulham posted a 60% win rate at home last season, taking 12 wins in 20 matches while averaging 1.7 goals scored and 1.1 conceded. Over their last five matches they have gone LWLWD, averaging 1.6 scored and 1.2 conceded. Their attack ranked 14th in the league, their defence 8th.

Crystal Palace won 7 of 20 away matches last season, a 35% win rate, while conceding an average of 1.65 goals per game. Their last five matches are all defeats, with only 0.6 scored and 2.6 conceded per game. Their attack ranked 18th and their defence 9th.

The last five meetings are split exactly: two wins each and one draw, with each side scoring six goals. Three of those games finished with two or fewer total goals. Fulham won the most recent meeting 2-1 away in August 2026.

Fulham's home numbers are clearly better than their overall averages: 1.7 scored per game versus 1.24, and a 60% win rate versus 39.5%. Palace's away form is mixed relative to their overall record: a higher win rate (35% versus 28.9%) but a worse defensive average (1.65 conceded per game versus 1.34).

Fulham have had six days of rest since their last match, Palace eight. Palace have faced a tougher early schedule, with opponents averaging rank 6.8 across four fixtures, while Fulham's two opponents averaged 8.5.

The Poisson model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely exact scoreline at 12.6%, but a Fulham win is the most likely outcome at 46.1%, compared to 26.8% for the draw and 27.1% for Palace. The model expects about 2.43 total goals, with a 69.9% probability of at least two goals and a 48.4% chance both teams score. The most likely margins are a draw at 26.8% and a one-goal home win at 23.8%, with an away win by one at 17.1%. Model confidence is high.

The data points to a closely contested match with a modest advantage for Fulham, reflecting their strong home record and Palace's poor recent form and away defensive numbers. The model's 46.1% home win probability underscores that a draw or away win remains clearly possible. The projection would be wrong if Fulham fail to reproduce their home scoring rate, or if Palace's attack — 18th-ranked last season — exceeds its recent output.