MotherwellvsCeltic

Fir Park hosts round eight of the Scottish Premiership, and the table figures for both sides come from 2025-26 because the current campaign is still too short to read. The tension sits between Celtic's road record — 13 wins from their last 20 away games — and a model that makes Motherwell the single most likely winner at 44.3%, against 29.3% for Celtic and 26.4% for a draw.

Motherwell finished fourth in 2025-26 on 54 points, scoring 52 and conceding 29, a 0.88 goals-against average that ranked second of 12. At Fir Park that defence was tighter still: 11 wins from 20 home games with 0.75 conceded. The recent sample runs the other way, with three defeats in the last five and two goals conceded per game across that spell.

Celtic were third on 67 points from 33 games, averaging 1.79 scored and 1.06 conceded, but their away splits are both more productive and more open: 1.95 scored, 1.5 conceded, a 65% win rate. A five-game run of four wins and one defeat brought 0.6 goals conceded per game. Their attack ranked second in the division, their defence fourth.

Four meetings are on record and Celtic lead them 3-1, with the aggregate 9-7 in their favour. Motherwell's only win in the series came at Fir Park. The four fixtures produced 16 goals, an average of four per meeting, and only one finished with two or fewer — though four matches is a thin sample to lean on.

The home and away splits diverge in a way worth noting. Motherwell are stronger at home than their overall numbers suggest, conceding 0.75 rather than 0.88 per game. Celtic swing further, conceding 1.5 on the road against 1.06 overall, a gap of almost half a goal per game, while scoring slightly more away than their season average.

Neither side has played since mid-September, 21 days for Motherwell and 20 for Celtic, so the five-game form samples above sit on the far side of that break. Celtic's recent fixtures came against marginally stronger opposition on average, an opponent rank of 6.5 against Motherwell's 7.2. Motherwell's defensive record is the platform their projection rests on.

The Poisson model returns home 44.3%, draw 26.4%, away 29.3% at high confidence, projecting 1.43 goals for Motherwell against 1.11 for Celtic. Its single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12.5%, ahead of 1-0 and 2-1, so the most likely result and the most likely score do not agree — a fair summary of how narrow these margins are. It expects about 2.54 goals, with a 46.5% chance of three or more and a 50.9% chance both sides score; draws and one-goal home wins together cover roughly half the distribution.

The edge to Motherwell is real but modest, and it rests on a home defensive record their last five matches did not reproduce. Celtic's 13 wins in 20 away games and 1.95 goals per away match are the strongest single argument against the home projection. If Celtic's away scoring rate holds near that level, the 44.3% figure is the part of this preview that fails.