Dundee UnitedvsHibernian

Round 8 of the 2026-27 Scottish Premier League takes Hibernian to Tannadice Park, where Dundee United sit ninth on four points from five matches. The model's most likely outcome is a Hibernian win at 65.3%, against 15.3% for Dundee United and 19.4% for a draw, and it rates its confidence high. The projected scoreline, 0-2, sums up the gap.

Dundee United have 1W 1D 3L from five league games, scoring five and conceding ten — an attack ranked ninth of twelve and a defence ranked eleventh. Their league sequence reads LWLLD. A separate last-five sample reads WDLWL at 1.6 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game, both better than their season rates of 1.0 and 2.0.

Hibernian's table data comes from 2025-26: fifth place, 51 points from 33 games, 1.55 scored and 1.12 conceded per match, a 39.4% win rate. Their last five read DLWLL at 1.2 scored and 1.4 conceded. That full-season line is the only league baseline the numbers provide for them here.

Only three meetings are on record, too small a sample to lean on. Hibernian have won one and drawn two of them; Dundee United have drawn two and lost one. The three matches produced 13 goals — 4.33 per meeting — and just one finished with two goals or fewer.

Dundee United's last 20 home matches: 6W 9D 5L, averaging 1.1 scored and 1.25 conceded, a 30% win rate. That concession figure is well below the 2.0 per game they are shipping this season. Hibernian's last 20 away: 8W 5D 7L, 1.3 scored and 1.2 conceded, a 40% win rate close to their overall 39.4%.

Both sides last played on 19 September, a 21-day gap for each. Dundee United's five recent fixtures came against opponents averaging rank 6.4; Hibernian's four came against opponents averaging rank 9, a lighter run on that measure. Neither sample is large enough to carry much weight on its own.

The Poisson model projects 0-2, from expected goals of 0.95 for Dundee United and 2.18 for Hibernian, for a combined total of roughly 3.14. Its three most probable exact scorelines are 0-2 (10.3%), 1-2 (9.9%) and 0-1 (9.5%); two or more goals come in at 82%, three or more at 60.6%. An away win by two or more is the largest margin band at 41.9%, ahead of away by one at 23.4%, and the probability that neither side is shut out is 54.5%.

The table numbers, the head-to-head and the model all point one way: Hibernian at 65.3%, with an away margin of two or more the biggest single band in the distribution. The evidence base is the caveat — Hibernian's league data is a season old, and Dundee United's home concession rate of 1.25 is far below their current 2.0. A narrow, low-scoring home result would fit the venue splits even as it contradicts the season aggregates.